Bracketology: UConn is top overall seed ahead of No. 1s Purdue, Kansas and Houston in first bracket update

The first common season Bracketology projection is out and we have now already had large turnover on the top of the bracket from the preseason. In reality, we had been a Virginia win over Houston away from one thing I’ve by no means completed earlier than. This may have been the first time in 30 years of doing bracket projections that none of the groups that had been No. 1 seeds in the preseason bracket had been nonetheless on the top line in the first bracket update. However, the Cougars won, so they’re the lone group among the many preseason top seeds that is nonetheless a No. 1 seed.

The overall No. 1 seed is not a simple name. 

Purdue has gotten off to an amazing begin with dominant wins over Duke and Gonzaga in the Phil Knight Legacy final month. However, the Boilermakers struggled to win their final two video games, an additional time win at Nebraska and an eight-point win over Davidson in Indianapolis. Despite having the early chief for nationwide participant of the yr in Zach Edey, Purdue’s offense is unstoppable provided that the Boilers are hitting their 3-pointers. In the video games in which Purdue has shot 33% or higher from past the arc, they’ve averaged 82.3 ppg. That quantity falls to 68.0 ppg when the 3-point share is lower than that, which is what occurred in the Boilers’ final two video games.

UConn is additionally off to an incredible begin. Like Purdue, the Huskies had been unranked to begin the season, however they’ve steamrolled their opposition to date and risen to No. 2 in the polls. Also like Purdue final season, they’re splitting time between two facilities – 6-foot-9 junior Adama Sanogo and 7-2 freshman Donovan Clingan. They are a greater defensive group than final season’s Boilermakers and that is a giant motive why the Huskies have laid waste to their opponents to date this season. They have a 15-point win over Alabama and a 21-point victory at Florida that was not as shut because the rating would point out. All twelve of their wins have come by double digits.

Because of the extra dominant efficiency by UConn in opposition to its schedule, I’ve the Huskies because the overall No.1, with Purdue at No. 2.

Reigning champion Kansas is the No. 3 overall seed. The Jayhawks have wins over Duke and Wisconsin, together with a blowout of Indiana on Saturday. Their solely loss got here to Tennessee in the championship sport of the Battle 4 Atlantis. The Jayhawks are being led by junior Jalen Wilson who leads the group in scoring and rebounding at 21.1 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Freshman Gradey Dick is off to an incredible begin as properly, averaging 15.8 ppg. 

Houston is the fourth No. 1 seed after the Cougars’ win at beforehand undefeated Virginia on Saturday. The Cougars struggled with Kent State and St. Mary’s earlier than lastly dropping at house to Alabama. The win over the Cavaliers is enormous for Houston as this season goes on as a result of in contrast to the opposite groups on the top line of this bracket, the Cougars will be unable to renew construct in convention play as a lot as groups normally can in the American Athletic Conference. The solely different group in the AAC that appears like a probable NCAA Tournament group proper now is Memphis..

Bracketology top seeds

Check out Palm’s newest bracket, full subject of 68 and all of the groups on the bubble on the Bracketology hub.

What occurred to the opposite No. 1 seeds from the preseason bracket?

Gonzaga – The Zags have nonetheless had an amazing season to date, together with a win over Alabama in Birmingham over the weekend. They are nonetheless a No. 3 seed and barring an upset in convention play, will probably transfer up from there.

North Carolina – The preseason No. 1 group in the polls struggled in opposition to higher competitors early on, dropping to the 4 greatest groups that had performed previous to defeating Ohio State on Saturday. The Tar Heels returned so much from final yr’s group, however issues have not jelled in addition to coach Hubert Davis would really like. Maybe Saturday’s additional time win over the Buckeyes in the CBS Sports Classic would be the catalyst to enjoying higher going ahead. The Tar Heels are at present a No. 7 seed.

Kentucky – The Wildcats returned final yr’s Naismith National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe, however the group has not come collectively round him but. They have had issues with the higher groups they face. Gonzaga routed the Wildcats and UCLA had their method with them as properly. The Michigan State loss actually stings as a result of the Spartans rallied to ship it to OT, the place they ultimately gained. Kentucky is additionally a No. 7 seed in this bracket, however I consider there is extra motive for optimism with UNC than with the Wildcats in the intervening time.

Picking the perfect of the remaining

The hardest factor about mid-December brackets is that as a result of there are hardly any convention video games performed to date, I discover myself attempting to decide on between groups with gaudy information and crappy schedules or groups with crappy information that overscheduled. Do I select Oregon, with a killer schedule it wasn’t as much as and which has Nevada for its greatest win or maybe Kansas State, with its awful schedule and additionally with Nevada as its greatest win?  Ideally, neither – however I’ve each in the bracket. This is why we solely do one December bracket.

Another bizarre factor about this explicit bracket is that Ole Miss can have performed Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and all three are in the First Four. There is no approach to bracket these groups with out having a regular-season rematch. When it involves the First Four, typical bracketing guidelines get put aside for causes like this. 

Numbers not dependable but

Also, at the moment of yr, there are usually not sufficient video games performed for any pc rankings to be dependable. About 1/3 of Division I groups have but to play ten video games in opposition to D-I opposition and no group has performed greater than 13. It is straightforward to look by means of the NET ratings and discover a number of anomalies.

Also, rating techniques like KenPom.com and Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, for instance, mitigate this by together with information from earlier seasons to fill in the blanks, so to talk. As the present season goes on, the quantity of information from earlier seasons decreases and ultimately goes away completely. However, for now and for about one other month, these rankings are usually not judging groups strictly by what they’ve completed this season.

So, at the moment of yr, judging something by the pc rankings is folly. The quadrants are usually not helpful as a result of of the numerous outliers in the NET.

Furthermore, at no time does the NCAA Tournament choice committee make selections based mostly on rankings alone and even primarily. They are usually not even a tiebreaker. If all you might have is good pc rankings, you don’t have anything. If the main points of a group’s resume don’t match the rankings, it is the main points that matter, not the rankings. Because a group’s schedule is divided into quadrants on group sheets, the NET rankings of a group’s opponents are extra vital than its personal rating.

So, once you attempt to make a case to me on your group or in opposition to one other in the bracket, pass over the pc rankings. Besides, I already know them.

As for this bracket, I didn’t use the rankings in any respect with one exception. To decide every convention’s computerized qualifier in the bracket, I take advantage of the group with the fewest convention losses and use the NET as a tiebreaker. This helps me automate that course of and I’ll try this for many of the remaining of the season. Once a convention’s match seeding is decided, the top seed remaining in that match is the AQ in the bracket.