DALLAS — As warmth waves saved temperatures in the triple digits for weeks and a rain-free streak spanned greater than two months in some locations, greater than 70% of Texas was experiencing extreme drought conditions this summer season — fueling wildfires, lowering crop yields and even revealing never-before-seen dinosaur tracks.
As of final week, bouts of latest rainfall have drastically improved conditions, with solely 38% of the state now experiencing extreme drought, in accordance to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The change has been conspicuous in East Texas: Gregg and Smith counties had been struggling beneath reasonable to extreme drought three months in the past. Today, each counties are labeled solely as “Abnormally Dry.”
The drought monitor’s newest knowledge says solely about 15% of Texas — largely in the central portion of the state — is in excessive or distinctive drought. In neighboring Oklahoma, that quantity is 64%.
It’s extremely anticipated progress, but consultants say Texas’ luck will quickly run dry.
The drought monitor’s report mentioned Texas’ progress could quickly be misplaced, with the upcoming winter strongly favoring below-normal precipitation for the state, including that “the seasonal drought outlook shows continued or returning drought for the region.”
One of the first drivers of that returning drought is the third consecutive 12 months of a La Niña sample, the report mentioned.
La Niña, the chilly section of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, is when the Pacific Ocean’s floor temperatures close to the equator cool and affect climate patterns world wide.
In North and East Texas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association anticipates meaning 40% to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures from December to February.
In a lot of West Texas and components of East Texas, the Climate Prediction Center mentioned, this La Niña could create worsening drought conditions as precipitation is pushed north.
While a historic winter storm mirroring that of 2021 is “very unlikely,” consultants say Texans can nonetheless count on ice, snow and freezing temperatures in the months forward.
“You’re going to have periods of cool weather, you’re going to have winter, you’re going to have the typical ice storms that you have sometimes, even in Texas,” mentioned Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction department of the Climate Prediction Center.
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