MICHALOVCE – A populist former high minister whose get together is liked to win Slovakia’s early parliamentary election plans to opposite the rustic’s army and political make stronger for neighboring Ukraine, in a right away problem to the European Union and NATO, if he returns to energy.
Robert Fico, who led Slovakia from 2006 to 2010 and once more from 2012 to 2018, is the frontrunner to occupy the high minister’s workplace after the Sept. 30 election. He and his left-wing Direction, or Smer, get together have campaigned on a transparent pro-Russian and anti-American message.
His candidacy is a part of a much wider pattern throughout Europe. Only Hungary has an overtly pro-Russian govt, however in different international locations, together with Germany, France, and Spain, populist events skeptical of intervention in Ukraine command vital make stronger. Many of those international locations have nationwide or regional elections arising that would tip the stability of fashionable opinion clear of Kyiv and against Moscow.
“If Smer is part of the government, we won’t send any arms or ammunition to Ukraine anymore,” Fico, who lately holds a seat in Slovakia’s parliament and is understood for foul-mouthed tirades against reporters, stated in an interview with The Associated Press prior to a up to date marketing campaign rally.
Fico, 59, additionally opposes EU sanctions on Russia, questions the Ukrainian army’s skill to pressure out the invading Russian troops and desires to use Slovakia’s club in NATO to block Ukraine from becoming a member of. His go back to energy may lead Slovakia to abandon its democratic direction in different ways, following the trail of Hungary beneath Prime Minister Viktor Orban and to a lesser extent, Poland beneath the Law and Justice get together.
The small Central European country created in 1993 following the breakup of Czechoslovakia has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Russia invaded greater than 18 months in the past. Slovakia used to be the second one NATO member to agree to give its fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Kyiv and likewise donated an S-300 air protection device.
But it additionally has observed public trust in liberal democracy and Western organizations decline to a better extent than different portions of the area that shook off a long time of Soviet domination.
According to a March survey commissioned through the Bratislava-based Globsec assume tank, a majority of Slovak respondents, 51%, consider the West or Ukraine are answerable for the struggle. Half noticed the United States as posing a safety danger for his or her nation, up from 39% in 2022. Of the 8 countries surveyed, Slovaks have been through some distance essentially the most distrustful of the U.S.; Bulgaria used to be moment with 33% and Hungary 3rd on 25%.
“We have a big problem,” Katarina Klingova, a senior analysis fellow at Globsec’s Center for Democracy and Resilience, stated.
The survey used to be carried out in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Each of the 8 Central and Eastern European international locations had 1,000 respondents, and the survey findings had a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Only 48% of Slovaks imagine liberal democracy just right for his or her nation, the second-lowest outcome after Lithuania (47%).
In February 2022, Slovakia opened its borders to Ukrainian refugees, in addition to sending palms to Kyiv. Nonetheless, many Slovaks nonetheless have a comfortable spot for his or her Russian Slavonic brothers and sisters and are thankful for the Red Army for releasing the rustic on the finish of WWII. Russian disinformation operations have additionally performed their phase: pro-Moscow propaganda is now in style in the Slovak media.
The perspectives mirrored in the Globsec survey replicate frustration following the chaotic tenure of a center-right coalition govt that collapsed in December and a pro-Russian disinformation marketing campaign that intensified after the invasion of Ukraine, Klingova stated.
“A number of local politicians have adopted the narratives and terminology of the Russian propaganda,” and amplified its affect, she stated. Fico, whose get together additionally campaigns against immigration and LGBTQ+ rights, is amongst them.
In his interview with the AP, he maintained that no quantity of Western guns going to Ukraine would alternate the process the struggle. He stated the European Union and the United States will have to use their affect to pressure Russia and Ukraine to strike a compromise peace deal.
“It’s naive to think that Russia would leave Crimea,’’ Fico said, referring to the peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. “It’s naive to think that Russia would ever abandon the territory it controls” in Ukraine.
Fico used to be talking in Michalovce, a small the city close to Slovakia’s border with Ukraine. Not some distance away lies town of Uzhhorod, one of the vital major border crossings for freight and people. In the spring of 2022, hundreds of Ukrainian refugees entered Slovakia right here, whilst humanitarian aid — and infrequently international warring parties — flowed the opposite direction.
More not too long ago, shipments of Ukrainian grain have crossed the border, a lot to the sadness of native farmers, who say it’s undercutting their markets. When an EU deal to stay Ukrainian grain in transit and out of native markets lapsed previous this month, Slovakia stated it might prolong its personal ban on imports till the tip of the yr.
But similtaneously the struggle in Ukraine used to be riding down grain costs in Europe, it used to be pushing up the price of power. Until the invasion of Ukraine brought on EU sanctions, Russia equipped maximum of Slovakia’s oil and gasoline.
In 2022, inflation rose to 12.13% p.c, pushed through hovering power costs. In September 2022, hundreds joined a protest arranged through Fico’s get together at which he stated the federal government’s make stronger for Ukraine used to be partly answerable for the upward thrust in inflation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with backing from his nation’s Western supporters, has dominated out negotiating with Moscow till Russian troops withdraw from his nation. He has additionally pressed NATO to supply a transparent trail for his nation’s club.
At their summit in July, NATO leaders pledged to stay supplying palms and ammunition to Ukraine however presented no coverage beneath the alliance’s safety umbrella. Fico instructed the AP he opposes “on principle” striking Ukraine on a club trail, pronouncing, “That would result in the Third World War.”
Fico’s place may additional complicate Ukraine’s aspirations to sign up for the alliance. At the summit, NATO allies stated that “We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met.”
____
This tale, supported through the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is the primary a part of an Associated Press sequence protecting threats to democracy in Europe.
____
The former high minister and his get together have proven pro-Russia dispositions right through their on-off courting with electorate. In 2015, after Russia annexed Crimea, Fico used to be one of the vital few European leaders to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to talk about industry, in spite of EU sanctions.
However, Fico in workplace additionally took care to domesticate ties with the U.S. In 2018, he started negotiations on a protection treaty with Washington. The settlement used to be ratified final yr, however no longer prior to Fico had organized a protest the place he instructed a crowd of hundreds that the treaty used to be “treason.” He stated the pact would compromise Slovakia’s sovereignty and impress Russia – claims rejected through the Slovak and U.S. governments.
Now, Fico repeats the Russian narrative in regards to the reasons of the Ukraine struggle, together with Putin’s unsupported declare that the present Ukrainian govt runs a Nazi state from which ethnic Russians residing in the rustic’s east wanted coverage.
“I say it loud and clear and will do so: The war in Ukraine didn’t start yesterday or last year. It began in 2014. when the Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started to murder the Russian citizens in Donbas and Luhansk,” Fico instructed a cheering crowd of supporters in his fatherland of Topolcany on Aug 30.
Grigorij Meseznikov, president of the Institute for Public Affairs, a pro-democracy non-governmental group founded in Bratislava, stated the Fico electorate are seeing now could be “the most authentic of all his career” as well as “the worst and the most radical.”
“The position of anti-system forces has never been so strong here since 1989,” Meseznikov stated, referring to the yr of Czechoslovakia’s anti-communist Velvet Revolution.
Fico used to be extra pragmatic. During his first four-year time period as high minister, Slovakia used to be approved into the EU’s visa-free Schengen Area in 2007 and followed the euro because the nationwide foreign money in 2009. Following the autumn of the federal government that changed his, Fico returned to workplace in 2012.
He unsuccessfully ran for president in 2014 and reclaimed the premiership in 2016, however used to be compelled to surrender two years later after the slaying of an investigative journalist, Jan Kuciak, and his fiancée.
Shortly prior to his dying, Kuciak have been writing about alleged ties between the Italian mafia and other people shut to Fico and about corruption scandals related to Fico’s get together. The killings brought about main boulevard protests and led to the cave in of Fico’s coalition govt. Fico’s deputy in Smer, Peter Pellegrini, took over as high minister.
The scandal-tainted Smer, campaigning on a anti-migrant price tag, misplaced the 2020 election and ended up in opposition with Pellegrini leaving Fico to create a brand new leftist get together, the Voice. The four-party coalition govt that took over made preventing corruption a key center of attention.
Dozens of senior officers, law enforcement officials, judges, prosecutors, politicians and industry other people related to Smer had been convicted of corruption and different crimes.
Fico himself confronted prison fees final yr for making a prison staff and misuse of energy, however Slovakia’s pro-Russian prosecutor common stepped in and threw out the indictment.
Almost all public polls are expecting Smer will position first in the snap parliamentary election, with about 20% of the vote. Fico would then want the make stronger of alternative events in order to shape a central authority.
He stated he hopes to sign up for forces with the Voice.
Another possibility could be The Republic, a far-right staff lately on 5-10% in the polls. The ultra-nationalist Slovak National Party is any other risk.
“His strong motivation is to avoid criminal investigation,” Meseznikov of the Institute for Public Affairs stated, including: “His return to power will be a problem for Slovakia in every aspect.”
Fico threatened to disregard the investigators on the National Criminal Agency and particular prosecutor Daniel Lipsic who examine essentially the most severe crimes and corruption after the election.
Fico vowed to “be more sovereign in expressing my views” however stated it’s no longer his purpose to lead his nation out of the EU or NATO.
“The international public should know that NATO is currently extremely unpopular in Slovakia,” he warned. “If we hold a referendum today, I can guarantee that people would say no to NATO.”
___
Find extra of AP’s Europe protection at https://apnews.com/hub/europe