As Florida State turns to Tate Rodemaker, CFP hopes for Seminoles hinge on Cardale Jones-esque performance

Florida State checked in at No. 5 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings, falling down one spot as Washington claimed the coveted No. 4 slot. As the 11-0 Seminoles get ready for their regular-season finale in opposition to rival Florida on Saturday in The Swamp, they’re doing so with out megastar quarterback Jordan Travis, who suffered a season-ending harm in final week’s win over FCS North Alabama. 

While the College Football Playoff Selection Committee insists the Seminoles’ drop has extra to do with Washington’s awesome resume, it is plain that Mike Norvell’s workforce now faces probably the most crucial turning level in a dream 2023 season with out some of the embellished avid gamers in program historical past. At No. 5 within the scores, Florida State can not come up with the money for a loss between now and Selection Sunday.

There at the moment are two choices. Either Florida State will rally round every different to conquer this late-season setback, or Travis’ harm will outline what Seminoles enthusiasts will consider as a overlooked alternative to go back to the playoff for the primary time in just about a decade. 

So which method will this move for Florida State? 

Oddsmakers are steadily a number of the quickest to regulate to landscape-shifting harm news. So we will see the have an effect on of Travis’ harm on Florida State’s College Football Playoff hopes in two techniques. First, FSU’s present odds to make the playoff (+130) correlate to a 43.5% implied chance, whilst the probabilities of beating Florida on Saturday and Louisville within the ACC Championship Game (+111 as a parlay) counsel a 47.3% chance. You may make a selection to spherical down or forget about the 4% distinction that can be public belief of chaos situations slightly than the laborious odds of completing 13-0, however it is a long way more practical to spherical up when taking a look at Florida State heading into the weekend. 

In the wake of dropping Travis, Florida State has a 50-50 probability of creating the College Football Playoff. So each and every 50-50 play from right here on out, beginning with Saturday in Gainesville in opposition to rival Florida, probably has College Football Playoff implications. Many of the ones 50-50 moments are going to come down to the play of recent beginning quarterback Tate Rodemaker, the redshirt junior veteran who had a rocky get started to his FSU profession however has a possibility to move down as some of the memorable names within the illustrious historical past of Seminoles soccer. 

This is not Rodemaker’s first rodeo

Year 1 of the Mike Norvell technology was once probably the most Year 0 of any Year 0 state of affairs in contemporary reminiscence. Hired to exchange Willie Taggart in December 2019, Norvell was once simply getting began on his first spring observe when the game close down as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2020 season didn’t come with a ton of excellent breaks for Florida State, with more than one recreation cancellations or even Norvell lacking a recreation whilst quarantining. There were not numerous wins both; the Seminoles went 3-6 total and completed twelfth within the ACC standings. 

Rodemaker was once a freshman that season, sharing a quarterback room with James Blackman, Chubba Purdy and Travis. After an 0-2 get started to the season, Norvell tapped Rodemaker to get started in opposition to FCS Jacksonville State … and it didn’t move neatly. Rodemaker threw for 58 yards and an interception prior to he was once changed via Travis, who led the Seminoles to their first win of the yr and has remained (when wholesome) this system’s QB1 ever since.  

“It wasn’t a real fun start, and I hate that we had to put him in that position, to be honest with you,” Norvell stated this week, via 247Sports. “But he’s really done a lot of great things, and he’s stuck through the journey, has continued to prepare. It is his time.”

Rodemaker was once ready to get some redemption two years later when Travis was once knocked out of the sport with an harm on the street in opposition to Louisville final season. Standing within the wake of a shocking disappointed over LSU in New Orleans, the expectancies had now not in point of fact set in but for a gaggle that may move on to end the yr 10-3. But Rodemaker’s performance — scoring a pair touchdowns and guiding Florida State to a 35-31 win in opposition to megastar QB Malik Cunningham and the Cardinals — lend a hand stay the momentum going for a workforce that was once laying the basis for the entire luck that may are available in 2023. 

Florida State’s coaches have referenced that Louisville recreation when discussing Rodemaker’s skill to take care of the instant in a antagonistic surroundings, which definitely what Florida has in retailer for the Seminoles on Saturday evening.  

According to studies from observe, it kind of feels Florida State is extra ready to take care of some rising pains thank you to the truth they are coping with a veteran and now not a rookie. Rodemaker does not have a ton of profession begins, however he is mature sufficient to keep in mind that if there is a mistake, then there may be most likely a explanation why and it is fixable. There will probably be high-pressure moments within the subsequent two weeks that require the facility take training on the fly, and Rodemaker’s dedication to this system and information of Norvell’s offense will have to lend a hand him in the ones spots. 

Cardale Jones, ‘The Rooster’ and probability at historical past

An enormous a part of the dialogue this week has been harkening again to contemporary examples of national-championship contenders struggling quarterback accidents within the ultimate weeks of the season. This is the place Florida State enthusiasts are hoping that Tate Rodemaker goes to be their Cardale Jones, who stepped in for the injured J.T. Barrett and led Ohio State to the nationwide championship in 2014. 

Jones had recorded 16 cross makes an attempt throughout 9 appearances in 2013 and 2014 prior to Barrett suffered his season-ending harm in opposition to Michigan in 2014. The simplest performance of notice was once a two-touchdown addition to a 55-14 rout of Illinois in early November, however even that got here on simply 9 cross makes an attempt in rubbish time. A 3rd-stringer to the beginning yr prior to Braxton Miller was once injured within the preseason, Jones was once an in-state prospect with just right measurement, score a excessive three-star or low four-star within the recruiting scores. But when his quantity was once referred to as, Jones spoke back with an all-time reduction effort, throwing for 3 touchdowns an no interceptions in a 59-0 win in opposition to Wisconsin within the Big Ten Championship Game prior to guiding the offense effectively to wins over Alabama and Oregon within the first-ever College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes publish 40+ issues in each video games. 

Rodemaker has a bonus that Jones didn’t thank you to his earlier revel in as a starter and enjoying in a difficult, aggressive street surroundings. But Seminoles enthusiasts also are acutely aware of their very own historical past with this example. 

In mid-November all the way through the 1998 season, a neck harm to FSU beginning quarterback Chris Weinke impacted what many consider was once a workforce set to win a countrywide championship. Weinke’s backup was once Marcus Outzen, affectionally nicknamed “The Rooster” thank you to his pink hair and flattop minimize. While he was once efficient sufficient in his first little bit of motion in opposition to Wake Forest, it was once his performance in opposition to rival Florida within the regular-season finale that secured Florida State’s spot within the first-ever BCS National Championship Game.

Outzen was once sacked six instances however pulled out a win over the Gators, who have been ranked No. 4 within the nation on the time. Legendary Florida State trainer Bobby Bowden credited his skill as a runner to serving to the offense, noting that “he played within himself and did the things he can do.” Florida State then were given an excellent effort from Outzen within the nationwide championship recreation loss to Tennessee, however in the end the Seminoles quarterback completed the sport finishing 9 of twenty-two passes for 145 yards and two interceptions within the 23-16 loss. 

Some of the consternation about whether or not Florida State would have received all of it with Weinke was once dampened when the Seminoles returned to the BCS National Championship Game following the 1999 season. With Weinke again as starter and Outzen his backup, the ‘Noles claimed their 2nd nationwide identify in program historical past. Outzen is rightly celebrated for his effort, as Rodemaker may well be as neatly, however Florida State enthusiasts are hoping he can fall extra consistent with the Cardale Jones storyline.  

Playoff variety committee taking notice 

While we will level to the percentages and claim the probabilities of Florida State making the playoff to be a 50-50 proposition, with one trail main to the Seminoles celebrating their backup quarterback and the opposite main to numerous “what if” dialog within the offseason, there’s a human component that will have to be stated. Florida State wishes to galvanize a committee of 13 folks tasked with selecting the College Football Playoff box. That’s going to require the Seminoles to end up they’re a number of the 4 absolute best groups within the nation, even with out Travis. 

CFP committee chair Boo Corrigan identified that FSU did move on to rating 58 unanswered issues after Travis went down. He did not point out North Alabama as a result of it would belittle the purpose, in fact, however it is nonetheless correct in that the Seminoles, as a workforce, didn’t fall apart when met with the one-two punch of sudden adversity from an FCS opponent and dropping your megastar quarterback to a grotesque harm. Corrigan additionally stated the committee would “close the books here in a little bit on Week 12 and then move on to to Week 13” to see how the Seminoles play in opposition to Florida. 

Both Cardale Jones and Marcus Outzen stepped in and stored their groups within the nationwide championship hunt when referred to as upon. For at this time, that is the simplest factor that issues for Tate Rodemaker and Florida State. It could also be a 50-50 proposition that the Seminoles make the College Football Playoff at this time, but when Rodemaker can arise on the correct facet of sufficient 50-50 performs on Saturday evening in opposition to Florida, the percentages will support considerably.