Architects of expanded 12-team College Football Playoff explain how sport will change in 2024 and beyond

Shortly after the idea that of an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff was once publicized 28 months in the past, Bob Bowlsby had a revelation. If some was once excellent in the playoff generation, extra was once higher. Except the then-Big 12 commissioner — one of the unique architects of the expanded box — wasn’t pondering of the construction itself, he was once taking into account of the unbridled hype it will create.

On Nov. 1 of any given season that will function a 12-team playoff, there could be 30-35 groups in competition for the ones 12 spots, Bowlsby stated in June 2021. That thought solved so much of the sport’s inner most dilemmas. One being that school soccer has been ruled via a small quantity of elite groups, growing a minimum of a belief that part of the FBS does not topic.

Now, because the clock ticks right down to not up to a yr earlier than the expanded playoff debuts?

“I stand by the original statement,” Bowlsby informed CBS Sports not too long ago. “They may not all be legitimate contenders, but there will be people saying, ‘We got a chance.’ I think the number holds water. It’s going to be a vastly different environment.”

What university soccer does with that additional layer of hype will be attention-grabbing to look at. It cannot be unhealthy, and it would even imply raises for the ones social media graphic designers who rejoice the entirety from uniform adjustments to award watch listing mentions.

It will be a variation on Bowlsby’s theme, the school soccer model of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber.”

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”

“The interest is going to peak up even more,” stated Craig Thompson, the previous Mountain West commissioner and some other authentic architect of the expanded box. “Whether Bob’s proper on [with] 30-35, which I feel will be quite correct, it’ll be, ‘By golly, my staff did not make the championship recreation of my convention, however we simplest had two losses. My 10-2 staff is a heck of significantly better than your 11-1 staff.’

“Record TV ratings. Attendance is up. … A lot of people say it’s the ruination [of college football], the sport is professionalized. No. … It’s a new era, new generation.”

This week being the debut of the College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2023 season, that layer of hyperbole in large part hasn’t been thought to be but. What university soccer does with that further buildup is but to be decided.

Less than 14 months clear of that first 12-team playoff recreation, CBS Sports spoke to a few of the ones 4 authentic architects of the expanded playoff. Bowlsby, Thompson and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey had been requested to believe what that they had wrought. (Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick didn’t reply to an interview request.)

Specifically, with greater than 1 / 4 of FBS groups anticipated to be in competition down the stretch — the usage of 35 of 133 FBS methods because the benchmark — what would it not imply for …?

Cinderellas: College soccer has stubbornly stiff-armed non-traditional groups enjoying for nationwide championships. Now, it cannot be have shyed away from. If the 12-team playoff was once in position this season, Air Force, Tulane and Liberty could be in competition for a playoff spot on Nov. 1. Ah, however extend your thoughts for the expanded playoff. This season, so would the likes of Missouri, Ole Miss, Louisville, Oregon State, Utah, Kansas State and Fresno State.

Coaching safety: Would coaches at the sizzling seat be thought to be extra safe simply by getting their groups in the combination for a place? Such has been the long-time case in the NCAA Tournament the place groups dangle banners only for collaborating in the 68-team box. It’s something to get an advantage for purchasing into the sector of 4. ADs higher get able for contract language added that awards bonuses for purchasing in the 12-team box.

Seeding amplified: The most sensible 4 seeds (all convention champions) will get first-round byes. That in itself will purpose a contest inside a contest to keep away from having to play an additional recreation.

Win and you are in: Not precisely. In a 12-team box, there may well be a couple of groups that lose their remaining recreation and nonetheless discover a spot in the playoff. That took place remaining yr in the four-team box with Ohio State.

The first-time inclusion of three-loss groups: It’s unavoidable with a 12-team box, however believe the dialogue forward. CBS Sports discovered that, for the reason that CFP debuted in 2014, 15 groups have completed in the highest 12 of the general CFP Rankings at 9-3. (For brevity’s sake, convention championship recreation losers who completed 10-3 weren’t thought to be.) That’s a median of 1.66 in step with season. The SEC led that class with six of the 15.

“To me, the record shouldn’t matter as much as the quality of team,” stated Florida AD Scott Stricklin, a former member of the CFP Selection Committee. “I go back to the basketball [selection] committee example. That happens all the time. Teams whose record doesn’t look as good as others, but they played a much better schedule and had a much better resume and got in, got a better seed.”

Stricklin is amongst a small team of Power Five ADs who noticed the expanded playoff coming and adjusted their soccer scheduling accordingly. Florida’s non-conference time table subsequent yr contains Florida State and Miami. The Gators even have home-and-home collection with NC State, California, Colorado, Arizona State and Notre Dame scheduled via 2032.

“Every AD is going to be watching really closely these first two or three years of the 12-team playoff to see what direction the committee goes,” Stricklin added. “If they pick shiny records that may not have been through as tough a schedule over teams that have challenged themselves more in the nonconference, it’s going to dictate how teams schedule.”

Sankey stated phase of the SEC’s ongoing dialog about whether or not to visit a nine-game convention time table is “a nod” to the expanded playoff.

“That makes an additional loss not a point of removal from consideration,” Sankey stated. “In fact, playing a stronger schedule may be a point of inclusion in the playoff. There have been teams that made the four-team playoff with an all [Power Five]-type schedule. People are concerned about doing that because of the risk. I think this opens up the ability to play a more aggressive schedule.”

Those architects had been at the start tasked via college presidents in January 2019 to resolve whether or not enlargement was once possible, imaginable, even sought after. They had been the Lewis and Clark expedition of the postseason — searching for to seek out whether or not there was once any “there” there in phrases of enlargement.

They studied greater than 60 fashions that incorporated six-, eight-, 12- and even 16-team playoffs.

Their authentic thought stays most commonly intact, in recent years having to live to tell the tale the newest around of realignment (that’s not over but). It took a long-protracted procedure to transport the growth up from 2026 to 2024. That was once simplest after Bowlsby walked out of a January 2022 assembly in a huff. The procedure to begin in 2024 was once in any case salvaged in September 2022 via the management of Mississippi State president Mark Keenum, chairman of the CFP Board of Managers.

“Going back, trying to evaluate formats, there was kind of a constant observation about the impact on the regular season,” Sankey stated. “Among the [larger] group, and then I think even among the commissioners, the four-team playoff affected the regular season. How do you bring more people into that conversation?”

The cash is the cash. The new playoff, when it’s open for bidding via attainable rightsholders, might surpass the $2 billion mark yearly. That would mark the biggest university sports activities TV contract in historical past. But altruistically, enlargement was once about get entry to.

The get entry to simply may stay the sport from blowing up. An expanded playoff assists in keeping Oregon State and Washington State — anywhere they finally end up — in the combination. With or with out the ones colleges, the Mountain West arguably turns into the most powerful Group of Five convention.

“I just think back to 2014, which is the first year of the four-team format … we were No. 1 in the country for longer than any other team that season,” Keenum informed Mississippi Today remaining yr. “Now, obviously, we didn’t make the four-team playoffs in the end, but we would have been very much a part of this 12-team format. In fact, we would have hosted a first-round game in Starkville. Can you imagine what that would have been like?”

CBS Sports analysis previous this yr confirmed that, for the reason that CFP started in 2014, a median of 7.3 groups from the mixed SEC and Big Ten would have made the 12-team box. That leaves a median of simplest 4.7 spots for the remaining of university soccer.

That threatens to proceed a commonplace theme: The BCS and four-team playoff have been unique. Since 2006, the postseason has been ruled via the SEC in phrases of championships. Since the 1998 debut of the BCS, the Big Ten has performed in maximum of the main bowls (now known as New Year’s Six bowls). Cincinnati and TCU particularly broke during the previous two seasons.

Sankey seen that enlargement was once excellent for “the West.” A Pac-12 staff has now not performed in a CFP recreation since 2016, the longest drought of any Power Five convention. 

If ESPN’s authentic thought for a weekly scores display was once to advertise the playoff, consider the nationwide dialog being on blast starting in 2024. That was once additionally phase of the the architects’ long-term plan.

The variety procedure will change into tougher if simplest as a result of of the quantity of “misses” in those reconfigured leagues. That is, convention groups that you simply do not play. The generation of the round-robin is over in major-college soccer.

In the brand new 18-team Big Ten, starting in 2024, groups will play each and every different home-and-away at least one time each 5 years. In the 17-team ACC, it will take seven years for some groups to play different convention fighters home-and-away. In the ACC’s eight-game convention time table, each and every staff will omit enjoying greater than part the league each and every season.

Coaches generally have bonuses of $500,000 to $1 million written into their contracts in the event that they make the playoff. An expanded box may in reality dilute the ones bonuses, in step with Chad Chatlos, managing director of the school and training follow for TurnkeyZRG government seek.

“Now that there are 12 spots, I think the pressure on coaches is even higher,” Chatlos stated. “Thing about is, you could have gone 10-2 at LSU and the fans would be not happy, but they’d be like, ‘Hey, we won 10 games.’ Now, if you can’t get one of the 12 [spots] … I hate to say this, because the pressure on coaches and the unrealistic expectations on coaches is out of this world. Now, it’s even going to get worse.”

Those playoff bonuses may now be “diluted,” in step with Chatlos, as a result of playoff berths will be “easier” to succeed in. What is prone to emerge, he stated, is tiered device of bonuses in keeping with advancing in the playoff.

The CFP variety procedure has been the least clear in the sport’s historical past of scores. AP Top 25 electorate are allowed to expose their ballots on a weekly foundation. At the tip of the season, the coaches disclose their ultimate votes from the Coaches Poll. We’ve gotten none of that from the CFP Selection Committee. No inside of search for the general public at how the rating sausage is made. Considering the sector is ready to be tripled, the committee’s recusal policy is ready to get much more difficult. 

More groups in the search, extra of the entirety to believe. For everybody who has agonized during the last quarter century about who were given disregarded, get able for complete new thought arguing over who may get in. Fun.

“Right now, there is a lot of tension every week about who might stumble and fall out, who might fight their way in,” Bowlsby stated. “There might be less than that [in the future].”