MIAMI (CBSMiami) – In its preliminary outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting an above-average 2022 Atlantic hurricane season after we kick it off on June 1st.
NOAA is predicting we’ll see 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or larger), of which 6-10 will turn out to be hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or larger), and 3-6 will strengthen into main hurricanes (class 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or larger).
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NOAA is forecasting a 65 % probability of an above-average hurricane season, a 25 % likelihood of a near-normal season, and a ten % likelihood of a below-normal season.
The elevated exercise anticipated is attributed to a number of local weather elements, together with the continuing La Niña, warmer-than-average sea floor temperatures within the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic commerce winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon which helps the waves that come off of Africa.
This is the seventh consecutive 12 months they’ve forecast an above-average hurricane season.
An common hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three main hurricanes.
When the busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane season got here to an finish, there had 21 named tropical storms and hurricanes, which was the third-most for any hurricane season, behind solely 2020’s file 30 storms and the 28 storms that fashioned in 2005.
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The season included seven hurricanes with 4 of these turning into main hurricanes reaching Category 3 power.
Of the 21 named storms, solely two impacted South Florida. Elsa and Fred, each tropical storms whereas close to South Florida, had been largely rainmakers and gave the world transient tropical-storm-force winds.
Louisiana was hit laborious once more when Hurricane Ida made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the 16-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall.
The 2021 season was the second 12 months in a row that exhausted the checklist of storm names. Dissipating in early November, tropical storm Wanda marked the twenty first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.
Going into the 2022 season, there are just a few enhancements to this 12 months’s forecasts.
The Excessive Rainfall Outlook has been experimentally prolonged from three to 5 days of lead time giving extra discover of rainfall-related flash flooding. Another experimental graphic would be the peak storm surge forecast when storm surge watches or warning are in impact.
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To enhance the understanding and prediction of how hurricanes intensify, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab will function 5 sail drones in the course of the peak of the 2022 hurricane season.