As momentum builds for the 2022-23 season, followers have contemplated whether or not or not the Thunder needs to be affected person and proceed to construct by means of the draft or expedite the crew’s trajectory and put it on a path in the direction of competing sooner moderately than later. While followers stay divided on the most suitable choice, it stays unclear what’s the proper transfer to make.
Should Oklahoma City determine to press the quick ahead button, it might imply upgrading the roster in the short-term and sure bringing in one other confirmed, high-level expertise akin to Donovan Mitchell or Jaylen Brown. This would probably require them to half with valuable draft capital and a few of their younger and rising prospects.
This may put a severe dent in the franchise’s flexibility shifting ahead. Attaining such a star would additionally eat up valuable developmental bandwidth at a time when a lot of the roster remains to be in their early 20s or youthful; and with out understanding precisely how these guys will evolve, it may throw a wrench into the system, not permitting for full consideration in regards to each match and chemistry. While media consideration and recreation attendance would you’ll want to enhance, the penalties of such a transfer may damage the Thunder’s quest for constructing a sustainably profitable crew.
Time and time once more, we’ve seen different organizations push the chips in a bit too quickly solely to high out as a middling playoff crew, or worse. The 2010-11 Knicks traded away a younger Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler solely so as to add Carmelo Anthony. New York would proceed to make the playoffs in their first three seasons with Anthony as their main scorer however received only one recreation in the post-season in their first two years earlier than dropping the Western Conference Finals 2-4 versus Indiana. That crew didn’t make the playoffs once more for the subsequent eight years.
Perhaps a extra related instance consists of the 2016-17 Timberwolves buying and selling away a younger Zach Lavine, a choose that turned Lauri Markkanen, and Kris Dunn so as to add a 28-year-old Jimmy Butler to a franchise in growth mode. The transfer for Butler resulted in one disappointing playoff look. This brought about a lot pressure and frustration inside the locker room and ended in the former Chicago Bull taking part in lower than 70 video games earlier than being shipped off to Philadelphia for diminishing returns.
Though unlikely, one other avenue Oklahoma City may select to discover is the free agent market. Barring a significant shakeup, the Thunder are at present slated to have round $40M to spend subsequent low season and that quantity may simply enhance. That’s sufficient dough to reel in an enormous fish. Given that it might probably take a really substantial four-year provide, selecting this street would in all probability result in a few of the similar points talked about beforehand and make for some extremely troublesome selections when it comes time to re-sign latest draft picks Chet Holmgren, Tre Mann, and Josh Giddey, and so forth.
If Oklahoma City stays the course with its choice to rebuild by means of the draft, it’ll probably take a little bit bit longer to place a product on the flooring that’s able to competing for a title. As a lot pleasure as there may be surrounding the Thunder’s younger weapons, nobody – not even the entrance workplace – is definite about what these gamers might be. One or two may flip into stars and supply precisely what the franchise has been in search of earlier than deciding to press the pedal to the metallic. Or they won’t. And although that will consequence in elevated frustrations from components of the fanbase, the endurance in discovering out may repay in an enormous approach.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on a trajectory that appears like it’s headed in the direction of the moon and the reality that he’s locked up for the subsequent 5 years, the crew can afford to be affected person whereas the crew works on turning rookie contracts into significant NBA gamers. And the benefits of constructing by means of the draft are quite a few for the Thunder.
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Rookie scale contracts are the most cheap solution to purchase expertise, liberating up cash in the low season to make strikes if needed, and permitting franchises to keep away from the luxurious tax. Oklahoma City additionally stands to learn from the present Collective Bargaining Agreement, or CBA, that financially incentivizes gamers to signal with the authentic crew that drafted them – an enormous boon to franchises working in smaller markets.
Additionally, there may be additionally the benefit of management. Signing or buying and selling for a big-name free agent in the offseason may be the attractive transfer, however the franchise has no management over if that participant will stroll or stick with the crew at the finish of his contract, creating a way of uncertainty.
Handling rookie and max contracts are totally different, nonetheless. Rookie contracts include chicken rights, which permits the entrance workplace the possibility of going over the wage cap in the event that they wish to re-sign these gamers. Players on max contracts, akin to Gilgeous-Alexander, may also be influenced attributable to language in the CBA that enables franchises to throw extra money at their stars.
Homegrown groups, or groups constructed by means of the NBA Draft, have been extraordinarily profitable over lengthy intervals in the previous attributable to issues like continuity and synergy that comes from the similar gamers taking part in collectively for years. San Antonio, Golden State, and even a previous model of the Thunder come to thoughts. In the early 2000s, the Spurs have been capable of assemble Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. This trio was the point of interest of a crew that might dominate for years, persistently churning out profitable playoff runs, ensuing in 4 NBA championships.
Over the final decade, the Warriors have been additionally capable of do the similar by drafting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. Though no reminder might be wanted, a youthful Sam Presti drafted Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden. While not everybody stayed put like the Warriors and Spurs, that iteration of the Thunder nonetheless loved a number of playoff berths, reaching the Conference Finals 3 times, and the Finals as soon as.
Considering the historical past, the present CBA, and the state of the franchise, it appears wisest to be affected person and let the new blood in Oklahoma City brew. Who is aware of? The Thunder may have already got the subsequent Tim Duncan or Steph Curry on the roster. For now, it appears to be in the finest curiosity of the crew to take care of malleability and hold choices open.
Armed with a surplus of draft capital over the subsequent few years and game-changing prospects on the horizon akin to Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, it might be sensible for the Thunder to method the short-term the similar approach they did final season and let the means of growth steer the ship. When the time is true, the franchise can have the assets to vault themselves into rivalry.
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