La Niña is anticipated to result in a hotter and drier winter throughout Florida throughout the upcoming winter season for the third consecutive winter.
For solely the third time since record-keeping started in the late 1800s, a “triple dip” La Niña event is expected according to the latest outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center. This happens when La Niña continues for three consecutive years and has important implications for climate patterns throughout the United States and in Florida.
La Niña develops as chilly water in the equatorial East Pacific is delivered to the floor. This outcomes in a jet stream that is extra likely to stay north of Florida, resulting in fewer rainfall occasions.
The winter months are usually the driest months of the year in Florida and this may be exacerbated throughout a La Niña winter. For Panhandle areas, drought situations are anticipated to worsen. Severe drought is already present in a small corner of Florida based on the most up-to-date replace from the U.S. Drought Monitor.
This announcement of a continued La Niña winter comes as the wet season in North Florida and the Panhandle has shut down, with rainfall deficits of as much as 6 inches in areas north of I-4 over the final month. South of I-4, areas like Orlando and Fort Myers are in a surplus given Hurricane Ian’s historic rainfall quantities.
The ongoing drought in the Panhandle is forecast to persist over the winter months, exacerbating the potential for wildfires. As of publishing, there are 21 active wildfires, primarily in North Florida and in the Panhandle. While most of those are contained, it doesn’t take a lot for further wildfires to spark given how low relative humidity has been in this area lately.
Wildfire season in Florida sometimes lasts February by means of May. During this time, temperatures start to climb throughout the spring season, however relative humidity values stay fairly low. This mixture helps to ignite dry shrubbery and might shortly result in issues with rising wildfire numbers. Observed hearth hazard indices as of October 19 had been very high along and north of I-4, with a few counties with excessive hearth hazard indices.
Similar to the final two La Niña winters, there will likely be rainfall. Seasonal outlooks present an concept for how precipitation developments might evolve with time, however usually are not meant to forecast for particular rainfall totals.