10 Bold NBA predictions: Victor Wembanyama wins historic DPOY, Stephen Curry claims second scoring title

The 2023-24 NBA season kicks off Tuesday night time, and whilst there is all the time part of me that hesitates to make predictions of any sort, there is a fair larger phase that may’t lend a hand it. It’s a part of the thrill. 

So I’ve made some guesses right here. They’re trained guesses, however guesses nevertheless. Well, one in fact is not trained by any means. You’ll see which one, however it is according to not anything greater than a droop, and, actually, there is little proof to strengthen that droop. 

The relaxation I imagine are going to occur, because of this perhaps one or two of them in fact will, however that is how I see a couple of issues taking place at this second. 

These are my 10 daring predictions for the impending NBA season. 

1. Victor Wembanyama wins historic DPOY

Admittedly, I used to be overthinking the Rookie of the Year race for a minute, reasoning that Scoot Henderson goes to get the most productive alternative to polish each and every night time with the ball in his palms. But that was once an excessively dumb idea. If Wembanyama remains wholesome, ROY is a wrap. 

But Wemby would possibly not prevent there. I in truth imagine he will turn into the primary participant within the 41-year historical past of the award to win Defensive Player of the Year as a rookie. 

The man’s period is brain-breaking. He’s in a position to dig down and disrupt drivers on the free-throw space with out leaving the 3-point line. He blocks 3-point pictures. He remains with guards and wings off the dribble, and even if he does not, he can nonetheless get well to dam or a minimum of adjust their pictures from more than one toes in the back of. 

We’re speaking a couple of 7-foot-4 human skyscraper with an eight-foot wingspan who strikes like anyone a foot shorter. Combine that along with his elite instincts, and it adjustments offensive geometry in the way in which that Steph Curry modified defensive geometry. There is in order that a lot more house an offense has to account for when gauging whether or not Wemby is inside an affordable vary of have an effect on. 

The reality is, he will also be at the different facet of the court docket and you continue to have to fret about what he is doing, identical as Curry on offense. It’s going to create legit paranoia within the minds of would-be creators. Where the hell is Wemby at? And can I most likely get this shot off rapid sufficient, or top sufficient, to keep away from him? The solution: most definitely now not.

2. Stephen Curry wins second scoring title

This is an issue of necessity. Klay Thompson may well be previous giving the Warriors 20-plus issues an evening on excellent potency. Chris Paul is definitely previous his scoring top; to me, he gave the impression of he had a hard time setting apart at concerned with his patented mid-range jumpers within the preseason. Golden State goes to be at a dimension deficit maximum nights and, subsequently, preventing an uphill struggle at the forums. 

It all provides as much as Curry having to supply a big-time scoring season if the Warriors are going to protected a playoff spot within the loaded West, let by myself a top-four seed. Personally, except Jonathan Kuminga severely pops, I believe the Warriors are going to spend a lot of the season proper at the play-in line, placing Curry in an increased state of scoring urgency for the majority of the agenda. Thirty-plus issues an evening is indisputably in play, and that are supposed to win Curry his second occupation scoring crown. 

3. Nikola Jokić wins 3rd MVP

Only 8 avid gamers in NBA historical past have received a minimum of 3 MVPs, and Jokić is set to turn into the 9th. Frankly, this will have to be his fourth. Last 12 months’s was once his, too. But 3 will do, and the rationale he will get it’s easy: he is the most productive participant within the league and the Nuggets are the most productive crew. 

It’s now not somewhat the similar as Golden State in 2015-16 after they received 73 video games after everybody was once seeking to discredit their first title, however with all of the speak about Lillard going to Milwaukee and the entirety the Celtics did and no matter this one-sided Lakers disagreement is, just about no person is speaking concerning the Nuggets all over again. 

The Nuggets do not strike me because the vengeful kind (Mike Malone does, however now not the Nuggets), however do not be completely fooled into considering Jokić in reality does most effective care about his horses. The man is a competitor, and this crew has one thing to turn out once more, I imagine. I believe it motivates them to get close to 60 wins. If that occurs, Jokić must be MVP, as you’ll already lock within the vital stats. 

4. Damian Lillard will shoot 40% from 3

This may now not sound like too daring a prediction, however the reality is Lillard has most effective crowned the 40% mark from 3-point land as soon as in his occupation, in 2018-19, when he was once 40.1%. He’s most effective crowned 39% two times, and he is 37% total for his occupation. You’re going to argue that Lillard’s mediocre percentages — rather talking for a man who’s lovely broadly regarded as to be one of the vital deadly marksmen in historical past — are a fabricated from his essentially tough shot vitamin over time, and I’d trust you. 

As adverse to his time in Portland, when he was once via a ways probably the most tracked participant via opposing defenses, it’s going to be inconceivable to dedicate a disproportionate quantity of consideration to Lillard in Milwaukee with Giannis Antetokounmpo rolling to the rim and shooters everywhere to house the ground. It will have to result in numerous open appears, which, in flip, will have to result in the most productive 3-point taking pictures season, from a proportion perspective, of Lillard’s occupation. 

5. Mikal Bridges would possibly not be an All-Star

It will probably be inconceivable to disclaim Bridges an All-Star spot if he repeats his post-trade numbers from closing season, however I don’t believe he somewhat will get there and there simply are not sufficient spots to be had. The manner I see it, there are 3 spots needless to say to be had, and perhaps 4, with Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle and DeMar DeRozan all at the bubble from closing 12 months’s crew, and Kyrie Irving having headed West. 

Let’s say all 4 of the ones spots open up. One is going to Damian Lillard. Another is going to Jalen Brunson, and I believe a 3rd is going to Trae Young as I quietly be expecting an enormous season from the Hawks, as you’ll be able to see under. That leaves one spot, and I believe given how a lot Jimmy Butler goes to need to do for Miami this season, he will get it. This is a bubble name. Bridges may simply make it. So may his teammate Ben Simmons, who has seemed lovely rattling excellent within the preseason. But, in the long run, there is simply now not sufficient spots. Bridges will get squeezed. 

6. Hawks will probably be a top-five seed

I’m going out on a limb right here. I’ve lengthy expressed my hesitance to consider Trae Young, whose taking pictures is wildly overestimated along with him being a defensive goal, however Atlanta goes to play quicker and shoot a number of 3-pointers below Quin Snyder. It will have to stretch the ground and create more uncomplicated half-court appears, and, quietly, I just like the competence of the defensive portions of this crew out of doors of Young. 

I would possibly not be stunned if Atlanta nonetheless finally ends up depending too closely at the my-turn-your-turn introduction of Young and Dejounte Murray and in the long run can not rating sufficient to make up for what’s going to nonetheless most effective be a mediocre protection, however there is a mess in Philadelphia and each Cleveland and the Knicks may regress (despite the fact that I imagine Cleveland may be set for an enormous 12 months after addressing their small-forward taking pictures problems with Georges Niang and Max Strus). 

In the tip, I’m having a bet on an enormous Young 12 months with, optimistically, cast shot variety and excellent 3-point potency (the taking pictures skill hasn’t ever been questionable, most effective the choice), and there are numerous different succesful shooters in this roster along with the opportunity of an enormous offensive-glass benefit with Clint Capela (if he is not traded) and Onyeka Okongwu. 

If not anything else, the Hawks’ win overall sitting at 41.5 is an over lock. Assuming relative well being, I will be able to nearly make sure that a lot. 

7. OKC will probably be a top-six seed

I’m now not able to leap at the top-four-seed wagon, however I do assume OKC finishes above the play-in this 12 months. Chet Holmgren makes the Thunder a unique animal. The spacing he will supply will probably be crucial for a crew briefly provide of threatening shooters. The protection will probably be stout. This crew performs arduous and with power each and every night time. Shai Gilgeous-Anlexander will probably be within the MVP dialog. Trades are patently there to be made. Buddy Hield, any person? Perfect are compatible. Either manner, OKC is able to be a significant issue. No extra ready. 

8. Zion Williamson will play 60-plus video games

This is the one prediction I’ve in this checklist that’s not according to the rest as opposed to an old school wager. Some harm good fortune is sure to head Zion’s manner. All the debate about his occupation being at the verge of derailment is an excessive amount of. He appears to be in excellent form. He’s beginning wholesome. Nobody is looking for 75 video games. Sixty isn’t some unreasonable quantity. Let’s move our collective palms, as a result of all of us need to see what Zion, and the Pelicans, will also be with a run of fine well being and good fortune. 

9. Grizzlies will probably be within the play-in

Ja Morant is suspended for the primary 25 video games. Assuming he misses a minimum of a handful extra for accidents or relaxation, Memphis will probably be with out its very best participant for greater than a 3rd of the season. That is vital. 

Now Steven Adams is out for the season, as is Brandon Clarke. There is going the offensive rebounding that has compensated such a lot for Memphis’ middling half-court offense. 

Say what you wish to have about Dillon Brooks, however he was once an enormous a part of Memphis’ protection and total power. He’s long gone, too. 

Marcus Smart isn’t going to hide for all this. Memphis might be available in the market for an enormous guy; in all probability they’re going to communicate to Portland about Robert Williams, whom we will speak about in a minute. But, because it stands presently, the Grizzlies are in the back of the 8 ball in a Western Conference that permits no room for error. A top-six seed is a difficult ask below those prerequisites. 

10. Blazers will commerce more than one avid gamers

I believe Malcolm Brogdon is going needless to say, and most definitely Robert Williams, too. Portland will probably be seeking to get off Jerami Grant’s contract, however 5 years and $160 million for a sub All-Star is a difficult promote. Portland might marvel numerous folks within the early going. There are numerous cast NBA avid gamers in this roster with two stars within the making in Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. But ultimately Portland will cross into tank mode. If they are ready to assemble extra draft alternatives for Brogdon and Williams, which will have to be the case, they’d be silly to not do it.