Specifically, there are specific components intrinsic to what the Eagles do offensively that would put some torque and pressure on a Chiefs protection that struggled a lot of the season. And even throughout Kansas City’s present seven-game profitable streak, with its protection rating first in yards per play and second in yards per move in that span, the Chiefs haven’t confronted an offense as balanced as Philadelphia’s. In reality, they feasted on some restricted operations over their remaining 5 video games earlier than the playoffs: the Broncos (twice), Texans, Seahawks and Raiders.
If you’re inclined to love the Eagles’ possibilities in this contest — regardless of the heavy imbalance in expertise between the coaches (Andy Reid was employed as coach of the Eagles in 1999, when Nick Sirianni had simply accomplished his senior season of highschool) — these tendencies would possibly reinforce your pondering.
The Eagles can play preserve away
At their core, the Eagles wish to beat you up with arguably the greatest offensive line in the NFL, bully their method to a commanding lead at halftime and grind down your protection over the course of 4 quarters. The Eagles’ first-half scoring margin, together with the playoffs, is plus-163, 72 factors higher than anybody else. The Chiefs have been beneath common in opposition to the run (rating twentieth in run protection anticipated factors added, per the web site TruMedia), and so they haven’t seen an opponent with this a lot intent, proficiency and multiplicity in the manner it runs the ball, with Hurts and three various operating backs (Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott).
The Eagles ran the ball precisely 50 % of the time in the common season and playoffs, fourth most in the NFL, and they’re eighth in the NFL in time of possession. The Eagles even have run extra performs than every other staff in 2022 (playoffs included), and 30.1 % of their rushes went for first downs, the second-best charge in the league. The solely different groups the Chiefs confronted in the high 25 % of the NFL in time of possession have been the 49ers and the Bengals, who gave them suits final week however did not hit the magic variety of carries, dashing the ball simply 17 instances.
What is that magic quantity, you ask? It’s 26.
The Chiefs are 16-3 together with the postseason however have been simply 5-3 in opposition to opponents that ran the ball greater than 25 instances, and even the wins have been lower than sterling. They misplaced to the lowly Colts (Week 3), the Bills (Week 6) and the Bengals (Week 13) when these groups exceeded that complete. They barely beat the suspect Titans at house in extra time — regardless of Tennessee taking part in with uncooked rookie Malik Willis at quarterback and hardly pretending to throw the ball — and wanted a wild fourth-quarter comeback and extra time to beat the tanking Texans in Week 15, with playoff seeding on the line, after trailing a lot of the game.
Kansas City doesn’t love defending the QB in the operating game
Hurts gave me pause together with his lack of accuracy on a few of his best throws in the NFC championship game, however I are likely to assume it’s not due to lingering shoulder points, as a result of he nonetheless used his extremely robust trunk and core to push individuals round with the ball in his palms. And the Chiefs’ protection is sweet for giving up a minimum of one lengthy run every time it faces a cell quarterback. If this game is as shut as many anticipate it to be, one play might be the distinction.
The previous 5 instances this Kansas City protection confronted a quarterback who may motor some, there have been points. Joe Burrow had a 14-yard scamper final week and a protracted of 16 in their earlier assembly. Trevor Lawrence ran thrice for 26 yards in the divisional spherical and had an 18-yard rush in their earlier assembly. The Broncos and Russell Wilson confronted Kansas City twice late in the season; Wilson had a protracted of 16 in one game and 19 in the different. Willis — possibly the closest approximation to Hurts the Chiefs confronted, even and not using a trace of downfield passing intent — carried eight instances for 40 yards with a protracted of 17. Josh Allen had a 16-yard run in opposition to them, and Kyler Murray had a 21-yard rush manner again in Week 1 however simply 5 complete runs as the Chiefs destroyed the hapless Cardinals.
Even if Hurts is shaky throwing the ball in his first Super Bowl, the Eagles can lean into the possibility game and run-pass choices to maintain the clock shifting. Again, if you happen to assume this game will be shut, contemplate that in the Eagles’ seven one-score video games, solely as soon as did Hurts not run a minimum of 15 instances (Week 18 in opposition to the Giants, his first game again from a shoulder damage). In these different six shut video games, he ran 98 instances for 493 yards — 5.0 per carry — with eight dashing touchdowns.
11 personnel is an issue for the Chiefs
One motive the Bengals have been such a problem for the Chiefs: They play virtually completely in one personnel bundle, with three broad receivers, one tight finish and one operating again on the area. (Only the Rams use the 11 personnel bundle extra.) The grouping permits Burrow to unfold the ball round to his weapons in opposition to a suspect Kansas City secondary. The Eagles rank seventh in utilization of 11 personnel (common season and playoffs) at 70.2 %, however not like the pass-reliant Bengals, Philadelphia has one in every of the most balanced offensive assaults in the NFL out of this grouping.
Hurts ranked fourth in the NFL in passer ranking out of 11 personnel (99.2), with 18 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, and was second in yards per try. The Eagles are virtually at all times in the shotgun in this formation — general they’re in the gun 89 % of the time — whereas the Chiefs rank twenty ninth in opponent passer ranking out of the gun vs. sixth when the passer is beneath heart.
The Chiefs have allowed 56 passing touchdowns whereas defending 11 personnel the previous two years (playoffs included) — 12 greater than every other staff. (The common is 36.) They rank twenty fifth in opponent passer ranking in opposition to the bundle (93.8) and twenty fourth in opponent completion share (65.6 %).
The Eagles have the NFL’s second-most rushes out of 11 personnel in the previous two years, together with the playoffs (the Bengals are third), however the Eagles rank fourth in yards per carry (5.44) whereas the Bengals are twenty seventh. Philadelphia has 36 dashing touchdowns out of this formation in that span, 12 greater than the Bengals, who’re second. (The NFL common is 13.) The Chiefs’ protection ranks simply seventeenth in yards per carry allowed in opposition to 11 personnel in that span (4.86), and, once more, it hasn’t seen something like the Eagles’ multifaceted operating game.
