Hero World Challenge: How players fare at Albany Golf Club can tell us a lot about 2023 outlooks

Last 12 months, at the start of December because the world puzzled when Tiger Woods would formally return to golf, 20 of one of the best golfers on this planet gathered within the Bahamas for the Hero World Challenge. Jordan Spieth completed final of the 20, partly due to a penalty he very a lot might have averted.

Spieth and enjoying accomplice Henrik Stenson teed off from an incorrect tee field on one of many holes at Albany golf course through the match, and have been penalized for doing so. Shortly after his spherical, Spieth defined what had occurred and was caught referencing the Hero as, basically, a hit and giggle. Here’s what he mentioned about the 20-player, no-cut match.

“I actually didn’t think we were going to get penalized because it’s a charity event, but then I realized there’s world ranking involved and all that,” mentioned Spieth. I feel the irritating half for us now’s that each different group’s going to be — they’re ensuring to tell them, however for us they did not. It clearly did not matter for us, which is lucky, I feel, for these guys.”

Spieth acquired 2.4 Official World Golf Ranking factors for ending 5 pictures out of nineteenth place (coincidentally, occupied by Stenson).

But is the Hero, regardless of its OWGR factors accessible, actually simply a charity occasion at the tip of a lengthy 12 months like Spieth alluded to, or can it tell us extra about the players who play nicely at the tip of a calendar 12 months earlier than rolling into the following? In different phrases, is that this 20-player discipline merely a weigh station for OWGR factors earlier than one of the best on this planet put the golf equipment away for Christmas, or is it a harbinger for what’s to come back over the following 12 months?

There are a variety of other ways to interrupt this down, however the easiest is to look at what the highest three and backside three on the ultimate leaderboards of the Hero did within the years immediately following their performances. I went again to the 2016 Hero World Challenge and pulled the highest three and backside three in yearly, apart from 2020 as a result of the match was canceled amid the COVID-19 outbreak (in case of ties for third or 18th, I averaged players’ numbers collectively).

The knowledge right here is fascinating, and seemingly extra consultant of the sector make-up than the rest. There does not appear to be a large differentiation within the following 12 months’s efficiency for many who completed within the prime three at the Hero World Challenge in comparison with those that completed within the backside three.

For instance, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns and Patrick Reed fashioned the highest three final 12 months, and that group went on to win six instances in 2022 (with 4 of these coming from Scheffler). However, Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson and Jordan Spieth completed within the backside three, and so they mixed to win 5 instances in 2022 (with McIlroy contributing three of these victories). The takeaway is unsurprising: All 20 players at the Hero World Challenge are actually good.

If you begin to look at each 12 months, one theme does start to emerge. While there is no assure that the highest three at the Hero could have a higher following 12 months than the underside three, it’s clear that the highest three nearly at all times have super following years whereas the underside three do not at all times observe go well with.

A superb instance of this got here at the 2016 Hero World Challenge the place Hideki Matsuyama gained, Henrik Stenson completed second and Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar tied for third. Even when averageing the next years for these in third, that group gained 5 instances and gained 5.36 (!) whole strokes per spherical in 2017. The backside three of Tiger Woods, Russell Knox and Emiliano Grillo? Not a lot.

The lesson right here seems to be that the Hero nearly at all times has a nice discipline filled with players up and down the leaderboard who’re going to have a ton of success the next 12 months. However, in case you do occur to complete within the prime three, you are nearly actually — and this shouldn’t be a shock given the time of 12 months and the caliber of participant concerned — going to be a part of a group that has an unbelievable following 12 months. That’s one thing to remember when this leaderboard shakes out within the Bahamas this weekend