AAC expert picks 2022-23: Bold predictions, most overrated and underrated teams, top players

From nearly every angle you look at it, the American Athletic Conference took a step back last season propped up mostly by two NCAA Tournament teams — Houston and Memphis — and by a respectable SMU club. Its two teams in the Big Dance tied for the second-fewest since the league’s inception, and only one of the other teams in the league (SMU) made the NIT, a result representative of just how big a dip there was from the top tier of the league to everyone else looking up at them.

The chances that’s once again the case in 2022-23 aren’t nothing, either. Houston looks like it’ll have one of the best teams in the country because — much to the chagrin of all non-Houston programs in the American — Kelvin Sampson still runs the show. Memphis might’ve finally grabbed the final infinity stone by adding a point guard in SMU transfer Kendric Davis. Then there’s Cincinnati, which under Wes Miller looks ready to be build on a sturdy foundation. There’s questions about a lot of the league, but there aren’t about the top of it; it should be strong once more.

What should change this year is a much-improved middle and bottom of the league, flickering a glimmer of hope that the AAC — long considered one of the seven major conferences in college hoops — could regain its foothold in the greater college landscape. Ron Hunter and his Tulane team should ride the wave straight to relevance this year with their trajectory ascending upward. Temple’s transfer-heavy influx of talent under Aaron McKie could jolt the Owls back to life. And there’s even some cautious optimism emanating out of perennial cellar-dwelling Eastern Carolina, one of three programs entering new regimes after a bustling coaching carousel saw tons of turnover. 

Lost in the shuffle of the AAC discussion is of course the ratcheted-up stakes of what the AAC is now and will become soon. This is the final year of membership for Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, all Big-12 bound, so while the league may exist in some form, its makeup after this year will look quite a bit different this time next year. 

Preseason Player of the Year

Marcus Sasser | SG | Houston

Sasser was pacing towards All-American status last season with Houston until a season-ending injury cut short his breakout year just before he became a household name. Houston rebounded remarkably, finishing 32-6 and advancing to the Elite Eight with a litany of injuries, but Sasser back at full strength gives Cougars fans permission to dream as big as possible. He’ll be one of the most prolific scorers in the country on a Houston team that has had a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense each of the last two seasons. 

Four more players to watch

Kendric Davis | PG | Memphis: Davis is the highest profile intra-conference transfer within the AAC. The reigning AAC Player of the Year heads to Memphis where he gives Penny Hardaway his most talented point guard since he took over the Tigers program.

Jamal Shead | PG | Houston: On a Cougars team loaded with talent on both ends, Shead is the glue that holds it all together. The third-year point guard is the catalyst on offense and an ever-present force on defense. 

Jalen Cook | PG | Tulane: A former LSU transfer, Cook finished second among all AAC players in points per game in his first season last year with Tulane. He’s one of five returning starters for the Green Wave in 2022-23 and the biggest reason for optimism that the program will jump back into relevance in the fourth year under Ron Hunter.

Khalif Battle | SG | Temple: Battle’s 21.4 points per game last season extrapolated out for the entire season would have led all AAC players and probably put him into conference POY discussion. But he missed 22 games with injury and only competed in seven. If healthy he’s one of the most gifted scorers in college basketball.

Preseason Freshman of the Year

Jarace Walker | PF | Houston

There is some debate over which Cougars player is more deserving of this honor — GP and I are in lockstep that it should be Walker, while Matt Norlander believes it should be his teammate, Terrance Arceneaux — but there’s no debate that Houston has the best incoming talent in the league. I’m breaking the tie here and giving the nod to Walker, the highest-ranked signee in the program’s history and the first five-star to sign with the school in a decade. Sampson and his staff will make Walker earn the accolades he’s accumulated, and it may take some time, but eventually he’s going to develop into a force on a team fit to meet his strengths as an energetic, crash-the-glass forward who plays with an edge.

Predicted order of finish

Most overrated team

Temple

Temple got one vote from our panel as the No. 4 team in the league and settled on average at No. 5 in our preseason poll, so perhaps the “overrated” tag is a bit harsh — I have them at No. 6. But after finishing fourth in the league last season, Cincinnati and Tulane appear destined to make a leap and Houston, Memphis and SMU aren’t going anywhere. The return of Khalif Battle makes the Owls a bit of a wild card with lots of upside, but it feels a bit like they could take a step back in the arms race of the league with so many other teams set to make a leap.

Most underrated team

Cincinnati

Despite stumbling to the finish line with eight losses in its last 10 games — no, more like face-planting on the asphalt and army-crawling to the finish line — optimism surrounding Cincinnati’s prospects in Year Two under Wes Miller are sky-high. The team brings back most of its core from a squad that made major strides from the season prior. With six of its top seven scorers returning, including star David DeJulius, and a complementary incoming class led by Memphis transfer Landers Nolley, the Bearcats have the goods to go from bottom half of the league standings to challenging for the No. 2 spot behind Houston and very possibly a bid to the Big Dance to boot.

Expert picks