“Where are the hurricanes?” NEXT WEATHER Chief Meteorologist/Hurricane Specialist Ivan Cabrera weighs in on quiet start to the season

MIAMI  – Where are the Hurricanes?

I’m getting requested that loads. This is the seventh consecutive 12 months that situations in the Tropical Atlantic Basin have been favorable for an above-average season.

NOAA, seeing these alerts, has as soon as once more predicted we’ll verify off plenty of names this 12 months. Yet to this point, we have solely used three and it is already August.

So why are issues so quiet? Is the Saharan mud I’ve been going on about the perpetrator?

Well earlier than I get into that permit’s hold issues in perspective.

From a climatological view, the majority of tropical exercise would not occur till August. In reality, the “peak” of the season is September tenth. It is just not uncommon in any respect to see a July “lull” that may proceed into early August.

That stated, we’ll possible see a quiet first half of August. So let’s speak mud, particularly what we name the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

The plumes in orange you see are aerosols in the environment that originate from the Saharan Desert in Africa. This air, not very dense, rises up to the center ranges of the environment the place the easterly commerce winds then carry it throughout the total tropical Atlantic. As you may see in this picture the plumes attain all the means into the US. Our latest dry and hazy days with poor air high quality right here in South Florida are a results of this transatlantic traveler.

Like all climate phenomena, key components want to be current for tropical methods to develop, preserve, and intensify which in our case means hurricanes.

One key ingredient is wind shear (a change of wind velocity and/or course with peak) or higher put, the lack of wind shear. Hurricanes develop out of an preliminary grouping of thunderstorms stacked like pancakes. Wind shear disrupts this important a part of improvement, the pancakes get blown off.

Tropical methods additionally want moisture, plenty of it. Any dry air (Saharan Dust) removes one other essential meteorological ingredient. So as an alternative of air parcels rising to preserve thunderstorms, which creates instability, the dry air creates steady situations that cease this improvement. Without these thunderstorms, the hurricane “seed” is just not current.
No seed, no hurricanes.

So these steady plumes of Saharan mud largely clarify why the tropical Atlantic has shut down to this point.

So, are we in the clear? Absolutely not.

Clearing the Dust
Atmospheric circulations transferring alongside the equator are tied to making the environment extra favorable for tropical improvement. They can assist scale back wind shear and moisten the improvement space in the Atlantic. As a bonus, they’ll additionally add spin, one other key ingredient in tropical formation.

We search for these circulations or “signals” to inform us whether or not we’re preserving the lull going or whether or not issues will get busy. Right now, issues will stay quiet for a number of extra weeks however additional alongside in August and into September the alerts level to extra favorable situations for improvement.

This additionally coincides with when climatologically the tropical Atlantic is busy making hurricanes.

I solely use one cliche when it comes to Hurricane Season and it is one which I and plenty of of you’ve lived as nicely: “It Only Takes One.”