Bloomberg Opinion columnists have been assessing marketing campaign techniques, deciphering voter habits and sharing what they most hope for or worry from the election outcomes. Here are some highlights:
Why Are Democrats Likely to Lose Seats?
• The financial system is heading within the incorrect path: Voters are heading to the polls with the Fed “forging ahead in its bid to raise interest rates to bring down inflation, and it leaves little settled as to whether the country is heading for a real recession — the kind that has tangible consequences on Americans’ livelihoods.” — Jonathan Levin
• Widespread proof of against the law wave: “Robbery was up 13% and assault up 3% over the first half of this year in the 70 cities reporting data to the Major Cities Chiefs Association. In New York City, where murder is down 14% year-to-date, the total number of what the city classifies as major crimes is up 30% and at its highest level since 2006. The number of reported petit larceny offenses [shoplifting, mostly] has never been higher.” — Justin Fox
• Democrats alienated the voters they want most: “Democrats’ most obvious failure this year has been to sideline, ignore or simply deny the issues that polls have repeatedly said voters care most about. The economy consistently tops the list. Inflation is attacking living standards in the most visible way: Voters see it every time they buy groceries, put gas in the car or pay their rent.” — Clive Crook
• Americans care about democracy, however not sufficient: “[A]s political rhetoric gets more and more extreme, millions of Americans seem to be shrugging their shoulders. While polling shows that people view “threats to democracy” as a prime concern, voters don’t essentially see a central element of that — election denialism — as disqualifying.” — Julianna Goldman
What Are the Biggest Changes in This Cycle?
• The massive lie has unfold its roots on the Republican aspect: “…[T]he content of local government has grown ugly and dangerous. In small towns and counties across Pennsylvania, the pernicious shockwaves of 2020 are not a distant phenomenon. Local officials, many of them Republicans trying to do an honest job, are increasingly squeezed between the lies of Republican elites and relentless attacks from local activists who treat the lies as to-do lists. — Francis Wilkinson
• Democrats helped extreme candidates in GOP primaries: Democratic strategists made a bet that “elevating the extremists’ profile would help them defeat more moderate opponents who would have been harder for Democrats to beat in the general election.” Stay tuned for whether or not it labored. — Jonathan Bernstein
• Nothing! Everything is regular: “To the extent that anything has really gone wrong for Democrats over the past two years, it’s that in spending so much time worrying about the possibility of election subversion, they have not worried quite enough about the risk of losing elections the normal way.” — Matthew Yglesias
Finally: Three Big Takeaways
Biden’s financial system is second solely to 1 at this level, in accordance with the information: More than a dozen measures of relative prosperity present this administration has outperformed six of its final seven predecessors. — Matthew A. Winkler
It is as much as Republicans to rescue American democracy: “The group with the most leverage are Republicans who are largely committed to the values in the Constitution and who have at times stood up to others in their party. That includes everyone from former Vice President Mike Pence to about half the Republicans currently in the Senate to quite a few Republican judges. …They will need to strongly oppose any efforts to undermine elections in which Republicans fall short and cry fraud. The more Republicans unify around supporting democracy, the more likely they are to succeed in defeating attempts to undermine it.” — Jonathan Bernstein
These bipartisan offers in Washington make sense in 2023: There will probably be a uncommon window of alternative for either side to succeed in offers on points they know are good on the deserves, however play poorly with the bottom. — Karl W. Smith
This column doesn’t essentially mirror the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its homeowners.
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