What Greg Abbott’s decisive win over Beto O’Rourke portends for his future

Sign up for The Brief, our day by day publication that retains readers on top of things on probably the most important Texas news.

An unprecedented pandemic that shut down the state economic system and killed hundreds of Texans. An influence-grid failure that left tens of millions freezing at midnight. The deadliest college capturing within the state’s historical past. The finish of a 50-year constitutional proper to get an abortion. A stressed proper flank. And then Beto O’Rourke.

Gov. Greg Abbott is rising from probably the most tumultuous two years of his governorship with a decisive reelection victory in hand. His win was among the many brightest spots for Republicans nationwide on election evening, because the celebration underperformed expectations of a “red wave.”

After defeating O’Rourke — Texas’ most promising Democrat in latest historical past — Abbott begins his third time period in a robust place, with a rising nationwide profile and a governing mandate within the eyes of fellow Republicans.

Still, Abbott faces excessive expectations for the subsequent legislative session, unsettled pressures from inside his celebration and questions on his personal political future. Not to say he’s nonetheless coping with the continued — and politically fraught — responses to main occasions of the previous couple of years, just like the Uvalde bloodbath that left 19 college kids lifeless.

“He clearly won by double digits,” stated state Rep. Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock, referring to Abbott’s 11-point margin over O’Rourke. “I think the people of Texas have spoken and believe in his agenda, and so if you want to call that a mandate, I believe it is.”

Yet this isn’t the identical Greg Abbott who received reelection with ease in 2018. The final two years noticed Abbott’s once-impressive approval ranking hit its lowest level ever after which recuperate partially, with the latest University of Texas polling displaying a narrowly optimistic internet ranking.

It is towards that backdrop that Abbott approaches his third time period with perceived ambitions for a much bigger highlight. He has proven no indicators of slowing down his at instances unprecedented efforts to safe the border, and he continues to maintain open the chance he may run for president.

Democrats say the election ought to have been humbling for Abbott. While he received, they word he needed to spend massively to defeat a challenger in O’Rourke, who argued Abbott had turn out to be too excessive.

“Governor Abbott’s solely mandate now could be to control with a gentle, bipartisan hand and handle points that truly affect Texans’ on a regular basis lives — to not dash additional down the rabbit gap of tradition battle extremism that the ever-shrinking far-right base desires him to,” the Texas Democratic Party’s government director, Jamarr Brown, stated in a press release.

Abbott’s marketing campaign didn’t reply to a request for an interview or remark for this story.

The governor steered the state additional to the fitting over the previous two years than he has in his total tenure. And as he confronted controversy after controversy alongside the best way, he made some dangerous bets — that the ability grid wouldn’t fail once more, for instance. And whereas O’Rourke attacked Abbott as too excessive on abortion and weapons — with polls displaying voters agreed — Abbott remained intractable, refusing to think about any measures to limit firearm entry or rethink the state’s abortion ban.

Instead, he saved his messaging laser-focused on border safety and the economic system. Even O’Rourke’s aides admitted afterward that Abbott did a superb job holding the concentrate on points that favored him.

Abbott’s marketing campaign didn’t meet expectations on all fronts, nevertheless, with exit polling displaying that he failed to realize his objective of successful a majority with Hispanic voters statewide.

Campaign guarantees and the subsequent session

Abbott made some particular guarantees in his marketing campaign that set the stage for the subsequent legislative session, which begins Jan. 10. Chief amongst them was setting apart at the least half of the state’s $27 billion finances surplus for property tax aid, which Abbott pitched because the “largest property tax cut in the history of the state.”

He additionally emphasised giving dad and mom extra of a say of their youngsters’ schooling. Most notably, he declared that state funding ought to comply with college students no matter what sort of college they attend, a press release that was a boon to supporters of college vouchers.

“He’s been very clear and very bold in what he expects or what he wants to see done, and I think voters responded to that, and so I think we are … very hopeful that we see some movement on both of those items,” stated Greg Sindelar, CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, the Austin-based conservative assume tank.

Abbott can also be poised to proceed prioritizing border safety within the subsequent session. That may imply sustaining — or increasing — Operation Lone Star, the $4 billion program that at its peak deployed practically 10,000 Texas National Guard troops to the border or different elements of the state to curb migrant crossings. Abbott additionally initiated a state-funded border wall and grabbed nationwide headlines by sending hundreds of migrants by bus to cities run by Democrats.

While Abbott has taken unprecedented motion on the border, he continues to elicit griping from some fellow Republicans that he’s not doing sufficient. That was on full show this week, as Abbott reiterated the action he took this summer to deal with the scenario as an “invasion” underneath the U.S. Constitution and authorize state authorities to return apprehended migrants to the border. Just like when Abbott introduced the transfer in July, some in his personal celebration stated this week it was inadequate as a result of he was not letting state authorities ship the migrants again throughout the border to Mexico.

Abbott did catch a break with Republican Kari Lake’s loss within the Arizona governor’s race. Lake had vowed to fortify the border extra aggressively than Texas, and Abbott’s conservative critics, a few of whom overtly campaigned for Lake, had been ready to pit Abbott towards her.

Abbott may even face intraparty strain over the Texas GOP’s legislative priorities, which embrace some frequent floor but in addition some causes that Abbott has been extra reluctant to embrace. Among them: banning “gender modification of children,” or medical remedies for transgender youngsters. That strain has intensified on Abbott since Florida not too long ago handed such a ban.

“After double-digit Republican victories in every statewide race, Gov. Abbott returns with a governing mandate,” Texas GOP Chair Matt Rinaldi stated in a press release, mentioning Abbott’s guarantees on property taxes and faculty selection. “Now Republicans need to deliver.”

Burrows, who chairs the agenda-setting House Calendars Committee, stated he expects Republicans to be unified on the “big issues,” like property taxes and parental rights.

Unresolved points

Abbott’s reelection race was animated by a bunch of calamitous occasions Texas has endured since early 2020. Just as a result of he received doesn’t imply the fallout from these occasions is over.

In Uvalde, questions persist in regards to the extensively panned regulation enforcement response to the May capturing, the place police took greater than an hour to take down the shooter. Throughout the marketing campaign, Abbott leaned closely on the truth that particular committees had been crafting legislative suggestions associated to the capturing — suggestions which might be anticipated to be launched within the coming weeks.

Another query is the destiny of Steve McCraw, the director of the Texas Department of Public Safety whose company has been amongst these faulted within the Uvalde capturing response. Abbott has not given any indication publicly that he has misplaced religion in McCraw, however the stalwart Abbott ally has confronted calls for resignation within the Uvalde capturing aftermath. He has additionally been via an exhausting two years as the highest company head overseeing Abbott’s border-security initiatives.

The Democratic state senator who represents Uvalde, Roland Gutierrez, has repeatedly stated Abbott ought to ask McCraw to step down. Abbott unsuccessfully sought to defeat Gutierrez within the Nov. 8 election, endorsing his opponent and tapping his personal marketing campaign funds to run assault advertisements towards Gutierrez on TV. But Gutierrez received by a snug margin in his Democratic-leaning district, and he has vowed to maintain up the strain on Abbott and McCraw.

On the ability grid, Abbott famously declared that every little thing that wanted to be carried out to repair the grid was carried out within the 2021 common legislative session. But one fellow state chief — Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick — has constantly signaled disagreement, together with all through his reelection marketing campaign.

In TV advertisements and on the marketing campaign path, Patrick bragged about efficiently pushing for the resignation of Abbott’s appointees who oversaw the grid. One of Patrick’s closing TV advertisements promised that he would “continue to strengthen our grid.”

And the on abortion — arguably the No. 1 problem for Democrats within the election — some Republicans within the Legislature have expressed support for including rape or incest exceptions to the state’s near-total ban. But Abbott has stated solely that he desires to revisit exceptions to save lots of the lifetime of the pregnant individual, and Democrats are deeply skeptical Republicans meant what they stated throughout their campaigns.

More broadly, Abbott must navigate an particularly tense dynamic among the many “Big Three” — the governor, lieutenant governor and state House speaker. Patrick’s loathing of Speaker Dade Phelan has turn out to be well-documented, and Patrick is coming into the subsequent session extra emboldened than ever. The election produced his most loyal GOP caucus but, and he stated Tuesday he’s ready to hit the bottom working with the “most conservative Senate ever.”

2024?

As all these points brew, questions stay about Abbott’s political future. Will he run for president in 2024? Is this his final time period?

Abbott has not dominated out a White House bid. However, his chief political strategist, Dave Carney, downplayed the prospect on a post-election name with reporters, noting Abbott has a “huge session” developing in January.

“We’ve never discussed it,” Carney stated of Abbott working for president. “We just focus on our knitting in Texas.”

Like many potential 2024 candidates, Abbott’s determination may very well be influenced by former President Donald Trump, who introduced his long-anticipated comeback marketing campaign Tuesday. Abbott has been silent on Trump’s announcement.

Abbott campaigned on Trump’s endorsement in his main however saved him at a distance within the basic election, skipping a Trump rally in Texas on the weekend earlier than early voting.

In a post-election podcast interview, Carney stated Abbott’s marketing campaign is already analyzing information to raised place him for a 2026 reelection marketing campaign. But he stated that’s “if the governor decides to run again.”

If Abbott seeks — and wins — a fourth time period, it will set him as much as be the longest-serving governor ever. His predecessor, Rick Perry, holds that document with his 14-year tenure.

Brown, the Texas Democratic Party government director, famous Abbott barely registers in early 2024 polls for president and stated he ought to concentrate on doing a greater job in his present place.

“I’m not going to make any decisions for the governor,” stated Burrows, the GOP state consultant. “I certainly think he’s been a phenomenal governor and could do many great things for not only Texas but other places as well.”

Disclosure: The Texas Public Policy Foundation and the University of Texas at Austin have been monetary supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news group that’s funded partly by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Financial supporters play no position within the Tribune’s journalism. Find a whole list of them here.