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Summer 2022 has been an unprecedented one with 5 “1-in-1,000-year” floods skilled throughout the U.S.: St. Louis and Eastern Kentucky, each in July, and Southeast Illinois, Death Valley and Dallas, all in August.
“The intense rainfall combined with conducive land surface conditions, known as impervious surfaces, have caused flash floods and widespread inundation in cities,” mentioned Yang Hong, Ph.D., professor of hydrology and distant sensing within the School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science within the Gallogly College of Engineering on the University of Oklahoma. “The continued warming climate and aging water infrastructure will exacerbate flood risks.”
Hong is main a analysis group with Zhi Li, Ph.D., and Jonathan Gourley, Ph.D., analysis hydrometeorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory. Their newest study, printed in Earth’s Future, has proven that future flooding within the U.S. is turning into extra frequent, wider unfold, but much less seasonal.
In a earlier study, the group demonstrated flash flooding is becoming 7.9% more extreme, together with larger peak flows and quicker arrival instances throughout the nation.
In their new study “Spatiotemporal characteristics of US floods: Current status and forecast under a future warmer climate,” the researchers used pc modeling to simulate variability of rainfall and flooding over the contiguous U.S. Changes in rainfall and flood frequency, spatial scale, and seasonality are explored inside main local weather divisions.
“Our models demonstrate that weakening rainfall and flood seasonality could result in more random and less predictable extreme events throughout the year,” Gourley mentioned. “Specific impacts demonstrated through our modeling flooding seasons will begin happening earlier in the West in snow-dominated regions, while flooding is likely to be delayed in the East. We also found correlation between extreme rainfall and flood onsets becoming stronger in the West, yet weaker in the East in the future.”
Overall, their study predicts an general 101.7% in flood frequency and 44.9% improve within the extent of flooding, primarily attributed to extra excessive rainfall and variability sooner or later.
“Predicting future floods is becoming more challenging because of changing land surface conditions,” Li mentioned. “Our past experience and knowledge are likely not applicable in preparing future floods.”
Hong added, “there is a pressing need for dynamically evolving knowledge about floods to design flood infrastructures, especially given the fact that many flood infrastructures, like dams, levees, drainage systems, and waterways, were built 50 to 100 years ago. We need more resilient flood defense measures in cities to address flood risks.”
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story by The Texas Tribune Source link
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