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The scores and outcomes from Week 4 in made it clear, in case followers and AP Top 25 voters weren’t conscious: The 2022 college football season goes to be extraordinarily fluid. Good luck to everybody — these of us right here who vote within the CBS Sports 131 included — who has to determine find out how to stack these groups up in opposition to one another of their college football rankings as a result of evaluating losses and making an attempt to fit these applications goes to be fairly troublesome for a pair weeks.
Considering the dearth of consistency throughout profiles of one-loss groups, the variation in voter conduct will likely be in every single place. Some websites monitor how far voters are from the consensus, and Sunday’s rankings will seemingly function the best common variance per voter. Which is to say voters will likely be in every single place with their rating for a few of these one-loss groups.
For instance, what is going to voters do with Texas A&M after the Aggies handed Arkansas its first lack of the season? The Aggies have one loss on the season, too, however that got here to Appalachian State, a staff that is now 2-2 after dropping to James Madison. What about Oklahoma and Kansas State? The Sooners simply took their first loss on the season to a staff that additionally acquired beat by Tulane at dwelling. Does Kansas State get to beat that defeat due to Saturday night time’s win in Norman, Oklahoma, and the way a lot will voters punish an OU staff that’s all of the sudden missing for high quality wins on its profile?
Those are only a few of the questions that voters will (or ought to) contemplate as they fill out their ballots on Sunday morning. Since there aren’t clear-cut solutions to most of them, that is why we predict there’s going to be a ton of variance. But our job is to strive predict the consensus utilizing years of voter habits to assist inform our projections.
Here’s how we predict the brand new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday when the brand new college football rankings are launched.
1. Georgia (Last week — 1): There was by no means actually a second the place anybody thought-about that an upset was brewing, however Saturday’s 39-22 win in opposition to Kent State was simply shut sufficient to assume possibly just a few first-place votes drift elsewhere. Not sufficient to result in any form of change at to Georgia’s No. 1 rating, however final week the Bulldogs acquired 59 of 63 first-place votes, and it is doable Alabama or Ohio State decide up just a few of these votes after Week 4.
2. Ohio State (3): The Buckeyes trailed Alabama by simply 19 voting factors (1492-1473) in final week’s balloting. The outcomes since then have solely strengthened Ohio State’s profile because it picked up a top quality convention win in opposition to Wisconsin and its earlier finest win (Notre Dame) went and thumped North Carolina on the street. Alabama’s shut name in opposition to Texas, in the meantime, seems to be extra problematic after the Longhorns’ loss to Texas Tech.
3. Alabama (2): There could possibly be some slight shuffling on the No. 2 spot, however Alabama did it is half with a 55-3 win in opposition to Vanderbilt that noticed Bryce Young throw 4 landing passes to 3 completely different pass-catchers earlier than the backups introduced the win dwelling.
4. Michigan (4): Blake Corum rolled up a whopping 243 yards dashing on 30 carries with two touchdowns to supply some stability and explosiveness in a seven-point win dwelling win in opposition to a frisky Maryland squad that Michigan had bother placing away.
5. Clemson (5): An exhausting double-overtime 51-45 near-upset by the hands of Wake Forest supplied far more drama within the second than it’s going to within the rankings. The Demon Deacons are a very good staff and in the end it was the very best efficiency but from D.J. Uiagalelei and the offense, but it surely was additionally a sport the place Clemson trailed or was tied for a lot of the second half and so the win will not spark a rankings leap both.
6. USC (7): The Trojans narrowly prevented an upset with a 17-14 street win at Oregon State. USC didn’t rating a landing till the fourth quarter however in the end discovered the top zone twice, together with with 1:13 left to place away the Beavers.
7. Kentucky (8): There might need a case of “lookahead fever” for Kentucky with Ole Miss arising subsequent week because the Wildcats powered there strategy to a 31-23 win in opposition to Northern Illinois as a 26.5-point favourite.
8. Tennessee (11): The door is open for an apparent leap into the highest 10, however the debate will likely be the place the Volunteers land among the many finest groups within the nation after snapping this system’s five-game dropping streak to Florida on the SEC on CBS stage. Hendon Hooker has definitely added his title to the dialog as some of the impactful quarterbacks within the nation, and that alone goes to assist the Vols’ standing within the minds of the voters.
9. Oklahoma State (9): The Cowboys have been off in Week 4 and will likely be again in motion subsequent week at Baylor.
10. NC State (12): There was little doubt as to the ultimate outcome as NC State closed out its nonconference schedule with lopsided win in opposition to UConn, enhancing to 4-0 and establishing an enormous Week 5 showdown with Clemson in Death Valley.
11. Utah (13): The expectations weren’t excessive for an Arizona State staff in its first motion because the dismissal of Herm Edwards, however Utah made certain there was no alternative for a bounce-back upset in a 34-13 Utes win.
12. Penn State (14): There was undoubtedly a possible for a hangover following final week’s massive street win at Auburn, however what adopted was a reasonably nondescript 33-14 win in opposition to Central Michigan. The Nittany Lions acquired up by 14 early and simply held the Chippewas at arm’s size the remainder of the best way.
13. Oregon (15): Unlike Penn State, there was nothing nondescript about Oregon’s Week 4 win. The Ducks trailed by 12 factors with 6:42 left and had not led till three touchdowns in lower than 3 minutes flipped the sport on its head in a 44-41 win in opposition to Washington State. The Cougars even kicked within the backdoor (for these involved about such issues) with a 49-second landing drive within the closing minute, however two Bo Nix touchdowns and a decide six had constructed out the padding to carry on for a win and enhance to 3-1.
14. Ole Miss (16): The Rebels have been shutout in second half however held on for a 35-27 win in opposition to Tulsa. Now all consideration turns to subsequent week’s matchup of unbeatens between Ole Miss and Kentucky.
15. Washington (18): The AP voters principally observe scoreboard outcomes and pregame expectations. Since the Huskies exceeded the expectations in a particularly one-sided outcome in opposition to Stanford I believe there will likely be a bump up within the rankings. Washington’s finest win, Michigan State, misplaced some worth with the Spartans’ loss to Minnesota, however the staff has performed at a excessive stage in opposition to all 4 opponents in its unbeaten begin.
16. Oklahoma (6): For the third time in 4 years, the Sooners fell to Kansas State. It was one other thorough efficiency from the visiting Wildcats, which outscored OU 14-7 within the first quarter and matched them level for level over the length of the sport. That places Oklahoma State within the Big 12 driver’s seat in the intervening time and knocks Oklahoma exterior the highest 10.
17. Texas A&M (23): Since the Aggies do have that loss to Appalachian State, there’s going to be a ceiling on how excessive they will rise within the rankings at this level within the season. But beating a top quality opponent like Arkansas, and exhibiting some enchancment in doing so, goes to assist Texas A&M’s trigger. The Aggies needs to be one of many larger risers inside the high 25 after Week 4.
18. Arkansas (10): It was a heartbreaking loss for Arkansas, when that discipline aim try was effectively inside the assumed vary however ended with a bounce on the highest of the upright. Now the Razorbacks’ finest win is Cincinnati, a staff that will likely be on some high 25 ballots however won’t crack the AP ballot, so it is touchdown within the rankings will likely be outlined by Saturday’s loss to Texas A&M.
19. Baylor (17): No main rankings change after a 31-24 win at Iowa State.
20. BYU (19): The Cougars caught a problem from a Wyoming staff rounding into type however held on for a double-digit win.
21. Florida (20): Billy Napier and the Gators introduced their “A” sport to Knoxville, Tennessee, and got here up simply brief within the 38-33 loss to the Vols. If there’s any staff within the nation that will likely be within the high 25 on Sunday with two losses, it is Florida.
22. Wake Forest (21): It could be stunning if the Demon Deacons dropped all the best way out of high 25 after the heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Clemson. Wake Forest is 3-1 and clearly on the identical aggressive stage because the Tigers, so it needs to be a high 25 staff on Sunday.
23. Florida State (NR): After a 30-point win in opposition to Boston College, the Seminoles at the moment are 4-0 with three wins in opposition to Power Five groups and two of them coming away from dwelling. Florida State is surging and no longer solely seems headed for its first bowl look below Mike Norvell, however the Seminoles could possibly be a darkish horse within the ACC Atlantic.
24. Minnesota (NR): At some level, it is not who you play however the way you play, and Minnesota has been crushing its opponents on the best way to a 4-0 begin to the season the place the Golden Gophers are outscoring groups 183-24.
25. Kansas (NR): The Jayhawks are off to their first 4-0 begin since 2009, and we predict the momentum of this unprecedented success below Lance Leipold will assist gas some voter consideration and land Kansas within the high 25 for the primary time since Oct. 18, 2009.
Projected to drop out: Texas (22), Pittsburgh (24), Miami (25)
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story by The Texas Tribune Source link
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