The fall of Lysychansk arms Russia management of 1 half of the eastern industrial heartland the place its battle has been targeted for months.
But whereas Moscow could deal with it as such, Ukraine’s withdrawal doesn’t but quantity to a strategic breakthrough for Russia, Neil Melvin, director of worldwide safety research on the Royal United Services Institute, a assume tank in London, mentioned.
There would should be proof of collapsing Ukrainian defenses and Russia shortly pushing deeper into Ukraine, Melvin added, for such a declare to have veracity. It additionally comes as Ukraine has been making progress elsewhere, slowly constructing in direction of a counter-offensive within the occupied south and forcing Russians from a key outpost within the Black Sea final week.
“But Ukraine has lost some territory and will need to ensure that Russia is not able to build significant momentum,” he mentioned.
What may occur next?
Taking the entire of the Donbas, a mineral-rich area that was partially managed by Moscow-backed separatists earlier than the invasion, has been the Kremlin’s focus for months.
Until latest weeks, its forces have been making incremental positive aspects behind an artillery barrage that has devastated the area’s villages and cities. But Putin has now secured maybe his most important navy accomplishments in Ukraine up to now — after a sequence of embarrassing setbacks early within the battle.
It’s a victory that Putin can “sell” domestically to point out that what the Kremlin calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine is making progress regardless of reviews of heavy battlefield casualties, Horowitz mentioned. It additionally offers the Russian chief some respiratory room to resolve what to do next, and whether or not he desires to decide on seizing all the Donbas or pursue a protracted, drawn-out battle with broader goals.
Observers say the seize of Luhansk will give Moscow a extra stable base from which to launch deeper assaults into the neighboring Donetsk province.
“Luhansk has gone, but Russia doesn’t get the Donbas until it takes the rest of Donetsk,” Michael Clarke, professor of battle research at King’s College London, mentioned.
Ukrainian troops are more likely to withdraw towards the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk, the place the next battle will happen, Clarke mentioned, as they strike deeper behind Russian traces with Western-supplied weapons to assault Russian gas and ammunition shops.
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based navy assume tank, said that Russian forces will probably next advance on the town of Siversk, simply 15 miles west of Lysychansk. It additionally mentioned the Russians may launch extra vital assaults on the cities of Slovyansk or Bakhmut.
On Sunday, heavy shelling in Slovyansk killed six individuals, maybe indicating Russia’s next goal.
However, Putin prompt troops that fought in Lysychansk may take a strategic pause to get relaxation and “increase their combat capabilities,” state news company Tass reported.
But capturing the remainder of Donetsk will likely be a extra daunting process, in accordance with Horowitz.
“In mid-March, Russia already controlled up to 85% of Luhansk, whereas it controls only about half of Donetsk today — and capturing the last 15% of Luhansk took months.”
That means provides of Western arms will likely be key.
“Kyiv needs a constant stream of weapons and ammunition to both be able to stop the Russian advance and take the initiative,” Horowitz added. “This has become an artillery-centric war as both sides can’t afford to launch any kind of offensive without barrages of artillery first.”
