The College Football Playoff Selection Committee now has more than a half-season’s worth of notes to consider ahead of next week’s first rankings reveal as we enter the stretch run prior to conference championship weekend. Now that we’ve established a sample size and have some semblance of predictability for the sport’s perceived national championship contenders, why don’t we peek at the rest of the schedule and project final records for the current top 10?
The elites we expected to be here in the preseason are mostly still out front, but several others have tailed off to make room for potential final-four busters, including an unexpected unbeaten out of the SEC. For many teams near the top of the rankings, the meat and potatoes portion of the slate begins as arduous matchups await over the final weeks of the regular season.
Depending where your program sits now, one loss may not eliminate you from the playoff picture, but it will certainly leave the margin for error at zero given no two-loss team has been selected in the eight-year history of the CFP.
Let’s take a look at the leaders in the AP Top 25 and project how their records will look by the time the committee convenes for the final time this December to make its decisions.
You get the sense the defending national champions have been waiting in the weeds for more than a month in anticipation of a breakout performance in the national spotlight. It’s been quite a while for Georgia since it drubbed South Carolina in September. That may come Saturday against Florida with intention to leave a mark. Games against nationally-ranked Tennessee, Mississippi State and Kentucky await thereafter. The Bulldogs are the SEC’s best team, and will show it the rest of the way.
Projected final record: 13-0 (SEC champion over Alabama)
Cruise control. Even when there’s a potential pothole like the ugly first half against Iowa, the Buckeyes can quickly punch the gas and lap the competition in the Big Ten. At least that what it feels like this season. Ohio State will roll Penn State on the road to conquer its penultimate significant challenge prior to the showdown against Michigan on Nov. 26. That’s where the Buckeyes will enact revenge en route to a Big Ten crown.
Projected final record: 13-0 (Big Ten champion over Illinois)
3. Tennessee (7-0)
Josh Heupel would never admit it, but one could assume Tennessee’s second-year coach has at least glanced at the remaining roads for teams outside of the SEC in the early final four conversation. Of course, one-loss scenarios are meaningless if the Volunteers keep scoring points at a program-record pace with Heisman Trophy candidate Hendon Hooker leading the charge. We’re picking Tennessee’s only setback to come between the hedges on Nov. 5. From there, it would need chaos to reach the playoff without a conference title as a one-loss non-SEC champion.
Projected final record: 11-1
4. Michigan (7-0)
Ground and pound is Michigan’s calling card, and it’s hard to argue with Jim Harbaugh’s philosophy when you have a group that carries out punishment at the line of scrimmage every weekend. At some point, the Wolverines will have to throw the football to win, and that may not become necessary until the trek to Columbus, Ohio. This season feels like it ends with a Rose Bowl berth for Michigan after a loss to Ohio State in its regular-season finale, but the Wolverines were giving off those same vibes this time last year, too. And we all know what happened there.
Projected final record: 11-1
You find the true identity of a team when adversity strike and how it’s handled. For the Tigers, overcoming four turnovers to beat a previously undefeated opponent with a record-setting winning streak on the line is really impressive. Clemson is the only team in the top 10 with three victories over teams currently ranked, and it will be at least a touchdown favorite in every matchup the rest of the season.
Projected final record: 13-0 (ACC champion over North Carolina)
6. Alabama (7-1)
Nick Saban’s team will do everything in their power to follow the same script that resulted in a playoff berth last fall: win out. Upcoming road games against nationally-ranked LSU and Ole Miss could be treacherous, but giving the Crimson Tide the benefit of the doubt in getting to Atlanta feels like a smart bet. This squad might not be disciplined enough to beat Georgia for another conference title this time around, however, and that would almost certainly prevent a CFP berth unless chaos strikes.
Projected final record: 11-2 (SEC runner-up)
7. TCU (7-0)
Every week, the Horned Frogs keep finding ways to win. That’s the sign of a great team, but at what point does the brutality of the Big 12 finally wear down this squad? It’ll be difficult to get past both road matchups with Texas and Baylor next month on top of beating Oklahoma State for a second time in the Big 12 Championship Game. Let’s project the Frogs to go 1-2 in those matchups falling to the Longhorns and in the league title game. At any rate, an 11-win season would be an incredible start to Sonny Dykes’ tenure in Fort Worth, Texas.
Projected final record: 11-2 (Big 12 runner-up)
Might a committee member or two slots the Ducks inside their personal top four next week? It’s possible when you consider Oregon’s lone loss came to No. 1 Georgia in Week 1 with a new coach in Dan Lanning leading Oregon — combined with how this group has performed since. The showdown against Utah at Autzen Stadium on Nov. 19 could be an elimination game of sorts at the top of the conference with UCLA-USC being equally important the following weekend. There’s still a bunch to sort out in an impressive upper tier, but Oregon could most certainly go the rest of the way without suffering a second loss.
Projected final record: 12-1 (Pac-12 champion over USC)
9. Oklahoma State (6-1)
What other tricks does Mike Gundy have up his sleeve this season? Oklahoma State looked dead in (Still)water midway through Saturday’s comeback win over Texas before a three-play, 85-yard touchdown drive prior to halftime seized some of the momentum back. There are problem areas with this team, but teams inside the top 10 not named Georgia or Ohio State have deficiencies. Winning out would put the Cowboys in line for a possible No. 4 seed after just missing the playoff last fall.
Projected final record: 12-1 (Big 12 champion over TCU)
Double-digit victories in Lincoln Riley’s first season on the West Coast? He would take it. The loss at Utah prematurely ended unbeaten aspirations, but the Trojans only play one ranked team (UCLA) over their final five games. Getting to the Pac-12 title game sets up nicely for USC as long as the Trojans avoid another hiccup and Oregon beats Utah for the Utes’ second conference loss.
USC projected final record: 11-2 (Pac-12 runner-up)
There’s a chance the double-overtime loss to Clemson in Week 4 could be what ultimately keeps the Demon Deacons out of the playoff picture. Dave Clawson’s team is rolling since and ranks second in the ACC in scoring offense (41.4), Wake Forest’s highest output this century. Its remaining slate is backloaded with tough games including three straight against NC State, North Carolina and Syracuse in November before finishing up at Duke, a likely bowl team. It’s hard to envision 11 regular-season wins for the Demon Deacons, so we’re projecting a 3-1 mark in those games with a loss to UNC.
Wake Forest projected final record: 10-2
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