The whole scored by the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers, sadly, fell wanting 46½ factors, thanks largely to these groups going a mixed 0 for 3 within the crimson zone. The Packers averaged simply 4.0 yards per play, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers seemed to be extra bothered by his thumb damage than anticipated, finishing 26 of 41 passes for 246 yards and a landing. The poor passing efficiency led to a commanding 27-10 upset by the Jets by which the over wasn’t severely threatened.
Speaking of passing performances, Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady, regardless of surprisingly enjoying from behind the whole sport, was held to 243 passing yards by the Pittsburgh Steelers protection, cashing the underneath 277½ passing yards proposition we advocated late final week.
Picks had been made in opposition to the consensus point spreads as of Tuesday night; odds which have since modified have been up to date in daring sort, however picks are locked in on the earlier odds.
1. New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1½)
Pick: New York Jets +1½, though the unfold was +3 and even an costly +3½ on the time of this writing
Read extra.
The Jets are on the upswing. Since quarterback Zach Wilson obtained wholesome, Gang Green is scoring 12 extra factors per sport than anticipated after accounting for the down, distance and discipline place of every play, per knowledge from TruMedia. Wilson, after all, relieved Joe Flacco underneath middle, and Flacco’s offense was scoring 13 factors fewer than anticipated. The Jets have lined the unfold by a median of 19.2 factors over the three-game stretch with Wilson, together with the upset over the Packers on Sunday.
New York’s offense can’t take all of the credit score for this scorching stretch. Its protection has been the seventh best within the league, per Pro Football Focus, whereas Football Outsiders ranks it 11th. Over the previous three weeks, the Jets’ opponents are scoring 13 fewer factors per sport than anticipated, the best mark within the NFL over that span.
Denver is trending within the different route, having lined the unfold simply twice, with an anemic offense averaging 12 fewer factors than anticipated over the previous three weeks. This decide was made earlier than reports emerged that quarterback Russell Wilson’s hamstring damage may very well be critical, news that moved the purpose unfold from +3 (and even an costly +3½) to a much less fascinating +1½, however the Jets are nonetheless the decide, as much as -2½ if Wilson is out and as much as a decide’em if Wilson performs.
2. Green Bay Packers (-5½) at Washington Commanders
Pick: Under 41½ factors, playable to underneath 40. The sport decide is Commanders +5½, however it isn’t a best wager.
There are quarterbacking considerations for each groups in this matchup between disappointing NFC golf equipment. Packers Coach Matt LaFleur informed reporters that Rodgers’s thumb, injured whereas being sacked on the ultimate play in a Week 5 loss to the New York Giants, was “hurting” through the loss to the Jets on Sunday. Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz has a fractured finger on his throwing hand and shall be sidelined, opening the door for former starter Taylor Heinicke.
Aaron Rodgers says he desires to simplify the offense.
When Matt LaFleur is requested about that, he says, “I don’t know what that means.”
Ok in order that’s not nice
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) October 17, 2022
Uncertainty hardly ever makes something higher, and these two offenses mixed to attain 24 fewer factors than anticipated final weekend. In truth, after adjusting every crew’s scoring fee for the defenses they’ve confronted and giving every squad an anticipated 11 drives to work with, I undertaking 34 factors Sunday, prompting me to hunt some different (decrease) totals at plus cash.
The performs above signify our best bets of the week as a result of our evaluation exhibits their worth is essentially the most profitable in contrast with what we anticipate to occur on the sector. Below, you will see that against-the-spread picks for the entire video games on this week’s schedule. However, making an attempt to select each sport is one thing of a idiot’s errand. The home wins so typically partly as a result of bettors attempt to make too many performs when the percentages aren’t of their favor. Keep that in thoughts when evaluating the remaining video games from the Week 7 slate.
3. New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video
Pick: New Orleans Saints +1½ or +115 or higher on the cash line. (This unfold has since moved up.)
4. Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6
5. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6½)
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -6½
6. Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2½)
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +3 or +125 or higher on the cash line. (This unfold has since moved down.)
7. Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
8. New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -3
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10½) at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11 (This unfold has since moved down.)
10. Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-7)
11. Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3
12. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-6)
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -6½ (This unfold has since moved down)
13. Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7)
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +7
14. Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ESPN, ESPN2
Pick: New England Patriots -8
