Friday, December 9, 2022

NCAA tournament bracket projection: VCU rebounds from slow start

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So down VCU went to Chattanooga and Wagner at residence on its method to a 3-4 start.

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But Chattanooga turned out to be good — as in 24-7 and common season Southern Conference champs — which wasn’t a large shock. And Wagner was a bit higher than anticipated record-wise, posting a 19-5 mark and a runner-up end within the Northeast Conference common season race.

The Chattanooga defeat is a Quadrant 2 loss. The Wagner result’s the Rams’ solely Quadrant 3 setback.

Oh, and VCU received guard Ace Baldwin again from a torn Achilles’ tendon Dec. 8, a season-altering improvement. The Rams are 16-3 with Baldwin, together with 8-1 away from Siegel Center. They picked off Davidson and Dayton on the highway for Quadrant 1 victories. This week they shut with alternatives for helpful victories towards St. Bonaventure (Tuesday) and Saint Louis (Saturday).

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VCU (20-7, 13-3 Atlantic 10) has improved on offense (midpack in convention play, making the Rams neither a ruthless machine nor an unwatchable mess on that finish).

And VCU ranks fifth nationally in adjusted defensive effectivity in keeping with KenPom.com, maybe pretty much as good of a protection because the Rams have fielded prior to now decade and a half. That’s saying one thing.

The Rams can’t afford to lose out and anticipate to make the sector of 68, however they’re in respectable form to land an at-large NCAA tournament berth. VCU sits as a No. 11 seed in Tuesday’s field-of-68 projection.

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Those November video games nonetheless depend, however the common season runs a bit greater than 4 months. It’s commonplace for a workforce to determine issues out, both as a result of it will get wholesome or matures or just will get higher. VCU did this season, and the reward might be this system’s twelfth NCAA berth since 2007.

Last 4 included: North Carolina, SMU, San Francisco, BYU

First 4 on the surface: Loyola Chicago, Oregon, Indiana, Florida

Next 4 on the surface: Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, Belmont, Michigan

Moving in: Alcorn State, Bryant, Cal State Fullerton, Jacksonville State, Nicholls State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa

Moving out: Liberty, Long Beach State, Loyola Chicago, New Orleans, Rutgers, Southern, Wagner

Conference name: Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Southeastern (6), Atlantic Coast (5), Mountain West (4), West Coast (4), American Athletic (3), Pac-12 (3), Atlantic 10 (2)

West vs. East; South vs. Midwest

(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) BIG WEST/Cal State Fullerton

(8) MOUNTAIN WEST/Boise State vs. (9) Xavier

(5) Texas vs. (12) SOUTHERN/Chattanooga

(4) UCLA vs. (13) METRO ATLANTIC/Iona

(3) Tennessee vs. (14) SUN BELT/Texas State

(6) Ohio State vs. (11) VCU

(7) Michigan State vs. (10) Creighton

(2) ATLANTIC COAST/Duke vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/Longwood

Because of the across-the-board struggles for the highest groups over the weekend, Gonzaga’s loss at Saint Mary’s doesn’t knock the Bulldogs from the No. 1 total seed on this projection. … Three will not be a great pattern for Xavier. The Musketeers had been 3-5 from Feb. 12 onward in 2020, 2-6 in that very same stretch final 12 months and 0-4 this 12 months. Xavier can be smart to win at St. John’s, and it definitely higher not lose at residence to Georgetown. …

Saturday’s victory over Auburn goes to make Tennessee troublesome to knock a lot additional down than a No. 4 seed. Winning at Georgia on Tuesday will all however clinch that type of placement. The Volunteers end the common season Saturday at residence towards Arkansas. … Result-based metrics are kinder to Creighton than predictive formulation. The Bluejays are in stable form for an at-large, however dropping out wouldn’t be a great transfer. Picking off Connecticut and/or Seton Hall at residence this week can clear up that concern.

(1) BIG 12/Kansas vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Norfolk State

(8) Colorado State vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/Davidson

(5) Alabama vs. (12) SUMMIT/South Dakota State

(4) BIG EAST/Providence vs. (13) MISSOURI VALLEY/Northern Iowa

(3) BIG TEN/Wisconsin vs. (14) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo

(6) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Houston vs. (11) CONFERENCE USA/North Texas

(7) Marquette vs. (10) Miami

(2) SOUTHEASTERN/Auburn vs. (15) ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville State

Providence clinched the primary Big East common season title in program historical past final week. The Friars must be rested for the league tournament, too; they shut the common season Tuesday at Villanova. … Northern Iowa beat Loyola Chicago on Saturday to assert the Missouri Valley common season title. The Ramblers fell all the way in which to the No. 4 seed in Arch Madness and may need to win the occasion to make the sector of 68. …

Another week, one other two shut victories for Wisconsin, which slipped previous Minnesota (68-67) and Rutgers (66-61). The Badgers are 17-2 in video games determined by single-digit margins and 14-1 in contests with a margin of six factors or much less. … Auburn has dropped three consecutive highway video games. The Tigers solely have a type of left: Wednesday’s journey to Mississippi State.

(1) Baylor vs. (16) SOUTHLAND/Nicholls State-SWAC/Alcorn State winner

(8) Seton Hall vs. (9) Notre Dame

(5) Southern California vs. (12) BYU-SMU winner

(4) Arkansas vs. (13) COLONIAL/Towson

(3) Villanova vs. (14) IVY/Princeton

(7) OHIO VALLEY/Murray State vs. (10) TCU

(2) Purdue vs. (15) BIG SKY/Montana State

Baylor will get a daily season break up with Kansas and climbs again to the highest line. The Bears have 12 Quadrant 1 victories, probably the most of any workforce. … Notre Dame most likely has amassed sufficient amount at 21-8 (14-4 ACC) to lastly be safely within the subject. The Irish needed to do it that means, partly as a result of their six convention home-and-homes got here towards the groups on monitor to play within the first day of the ACC tournament. To Notre Dame’s credit score, it’s 10-1 in these video games (with Saturday’s residence finale towards Pittsburgh nonetheless to come back). …

Princeton clinched a share of its twenty eighth Ivy League title with a victory at Harvard on Sunday. The Tigers could make it an outright crown — their first since 2017 and simply their second since 2004 — with a victory at Penn on Saturday. … TCU actually wanted the house win it received towards Texas Tech on Saturday. The Horned Frogs have a home-and-home with Kansas and a visit to West Virginia to shut the common season. They’re most likely good to go for an at-large in the event that they get a type of three.

(1) PAC-12/Arizona vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Bryant-HORIZON/Cleveland State winner

(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Wyoming

(5) Connecticut vs. (12) North Carolina-San Francisco winner

(4) Illinois vs. (13) AMERICA EAST/Vermont

(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) WESTERN ATHLETIC/New Mexico State

(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) Wake Forest

(7) Iowa vs. (10) San Diego State

(2) Kentucky vs. (15) PATRIOT/Colgate

Iowa State has virtually climbed out of its 3-9 gap within the Big 12, rattling off 4 victories in a row with Oklahoma State at residence and a visit to Baylor nonetheless to come back. More importantly, the Cyclones don’t have something to fret about when it comes to at-large inclusion. Iowa State is 9-7 in Quadrant 1 video games, so it’s arduous to think about the Cyclones being overlooked. … San Francisco is prone to face BYU in a West Coast quarterfinal Saturday, and that could be an NCAA play-in sport for each groups. …

The lack of high-end victories for North Carolina and Wake Forest ought to rattle each of these fanbases. The Tar Heels are 1-7 in Quadrant 1 video games and a mixed 5-7 towards the highest two quadrants. The Demon Deacons are 1-4 and 5-8 in these classes. … San Diego State, a 73-66 winner at Wyoming on Monday, has 4 Quadrant 1 victories. The Aztecs are also one among seven faculties with out a loss exterior of Quadrant 1 heading into March. The others: Auburn, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Saint Mary’s, Tennessee and Texas Tech.



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