Michigan’s Nonconference Slate Could Spark Playoff Debate

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Third Quarter

Nonconference Scheduling—How Weak Is Too Weak to Make the Playoff?

At Big Ten media day in July, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh (21) was requested a few nonconference schedule bereft of Power 5 opponents. The Group of 5 opposition was about as weak because the FBS hierarchy could possibly be: Colorado State, Hawai’i and Connecticut.

The reporter asking Harbaugh the query adopted up by observing that “feedback” from followers indicated they need a greater caliber of opponent coming to the Big House for nonleague video games. Harbaugh’s response: “Well, you can share that feedback at some point with [athletic director] Warde Manuel (22), and you guys can discuss it.”

No telling whether or not that dialog ever occurred, however right here is the suggestions Michigan has gotten on its schedule from the College Football Playoff choice committee members: they’re not impressed. Committee chair Boo Corrigan (23) has talked about it as “a factor” in discussing the Wolverines’ place within the rankings—first No. 5, then No. 3—every of the primary two weeks.

If Michigan retains profitable, it’s a nonissue. Go 13–0 and beat Ohio State, and the Playoff spot takes care of itself. But if the Wolverines don’t beat the Buckeyes Nov. 26 in Columbus, an 11–1 résumé that has no nonconference meat on the bone turns into a bone of rivalry.

This all dials again to selections Michigan made in 2018 and ’19 to loosen up its nonleague schedule and maximize residence video games. A two-game contract signed in 2014 to play Virginia Tech (24) for ’20–21 was purchased out by Michigan for $375,000 in ’18. A yr later, the Wolverines paid $1.5 million to get out of a two-game take care of UCLA (25) for ’22–23. (Hawai’i, the alternative for the Bruins, is getting a Michigan-record assure of $1.9 million to play the sport in Ann Arbor.)

Those buyouts gave Michigan what it wished: a minimal of seven residence video games per season. Changing up the nonconference schedule was pushed by the Big Ten’s transfer in 2016 from eight league video games to 9, which necessitated enjoying 5 Big Ten opponents on the street each different season. Something needed to go from the decreased noncon slate, and Michigan determined it could be street video games.

Michigan’s final nonleague street sport was in 2018, at Notre Dame. Since then the nonconference schedule has been Middle Tennessee, Army and Notre Dame in ’19; none in ’20; Western Michigan, Washington and Northern Illinois in ’21; and Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn this yr. Next yr it’s East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green. All within the Big House. (Things change in ’24 with a sport at Texas, and in ’25 with a sport at Oklahoma.)

In phrases of maximizing income and minimizing defeats, this all is smart. But the energy of schedule part in CFP deliberation doesn’t favor the present Michigan workforce when it comes to video games it has management over scheduling. This may have been alleviated by enjoying UCLA as scheduled this season. (Michigan officers declined remark to SI on dropping the collection with the Bruins.)

The Wolverines have the worst energy of schedule of anybody within the Sagarin Ratings high 25, with a slate that checks in at 71st. Tellingly, the second-worst is UCLA at No. 62, for the reason that Bruins additionally performed a non–Power 5 slate after dropping the Michigan sport. The Wolverines’ schedule energy actually will enhance within the subsequent two weeks with video games towards Illinois and Ohio State, however there can be some Playoff peril for a one-loss workforce which opted to play Nos. 124 (UConn), 138 (Colorado State) and 165 (Hawaii).

This turns into contentious as a result of it’s school soccer, and every part is contentious, but in addition as a result of groups from the SEC (26) and ACC (27) solely have eight league video games and plenty of find yourself scheduling only one Power 5 nonconference opponent—thus ending up with the identical variety of P5 video games as their brethren within the Big Ten (28), Big 12 (29) and Pac-12 (30).

The common variety of P5 opponents performed by convention in the course of the 2022 common season: SEC 9.07; Big Ten 9.79; ACC 9.5; Big 12 10.0; Pac-12 10.0. (West Virginia, Colorado and Stanford are the one three faculties within the nation to play 11 Power 5 opponents within the common season. All doubtless want they’d scheduled a minimum of one sport much less ambitiously.)

If it comes right down to a CFP résumé contest for a number of spots between, say, 11–1 Michigan, 11–1 Tennessee, 12–1 Clemson, 12–1 TCU and 12–1 USC—or some mixture thereof—listed below are some numbers to remember.

Michigan would have an 8–1 report towards 9 P5 opponents: Ohio State (No. 2 Sagarin), Penn State (No. 7), Iowa (No. 24), Illinois (No. 37), Michigan State (No. 46), Maryland (No. 52), Nebraska (No. 76), Indiana (No. 94) and Rutgers (No. 95). Average Sagarin rank: 48.1.

Tennessee would have an 8–1 report towards 9 P5 opponents: Georgia (No. 1), Alabama (No. 3), LSU (No. 10), Florida (No. 21), Pittsburgh (No. 42), Kentucky (No. 43), South Carolina (No. 57), Missouri (No. 63) and Vanderbilt (No. 98). Average Sagarin rank: 37.6.

Clemson would have a ten–1 report towards 11 Power 5 opponents: Notre Dame (No. 15), Florida State (No. 16), Louisville (No. 29), North Carolina (No. 36), Wake Forest (No. 38), NC State (No. 45), South Carolina (No. 57), Syracuse (No. 58), Miami (No. 74), Boston College (No. 106) and Georgia Tech (No. 110). Average Sagarin rank: 53.1.

TCU would have a ten–1 report towards 11 Power 5 opponents: Kansas State (No. 11), Texas (No. 12), Baylor (No. 18), Oklahoma (No. 22), Oklahoma State (No. 23), Iowa State (No. 28), Texas Tech (No. 34), Kansas (No. 44), West Virginia (No. 50), Colorado (No. 129) and a Big 12 title-game opponent to be decided. At the second it could be a rematch with Kansas State, which might give TCU’s P5 opponents a mean Sagarin rank of 34.7.

USC would have a ten–1 report towards 11 Power 5 opponents: Utah (No. 6), Notre Dame (No. 15), Oregon State (No. 19), UCLA (No. 25), Washington State (No. 32), Arizona (No. 56), Arizona State (No. 59), California (No. 65), Stanford (No. 84), Colorado (No. 129) and a Pac-12 title-game opponent to be decided. That doubtless can be the winner of the Utah-Oregon sport Saturday, so let’s say it’s the Ducks (No. 8). Average Sagarin rank: 45.3.

Rather a lot can nonetheless occur within the subsequent couple of weeks. But for Michigan particularly, profitable out can alleviate a number of concern a few buyout made three years in the past and its potential impression on a Playoff bid.

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