Rutgers is looking to avenge a road loss to Michigan State when the teams meet in the Big Ten’s Super Saturday event at Madison Square Garden. The Spartans (14-8, 6-5) took a 70-57 victory at the Breslin Center in East Lansing last month. Now they look to rebound from a 77-61 road loss to top-ranked Purdue last Sunday. The Scarlet Knights (15-7, 7-4) come off a 90-55 victory against Minnesota on Wednesday. Michigan State has won 11 of the 13 Big Ten meetings between the teams, but Rutgers has won the past two at home. The Scarlet Knights are the home team here, but gave up a true home game when it was elected for this event. Rutgers lost 69-63 to Michigan in the most recent Big Ten Super Saturday contest in 2020.
Saturday’s tip-off is set for noon ET. The Scarlet Knights are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. Rutgers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 128. Before you make any Rutgers vs. Michigan State picks or college basketball predictions, you need to see which side SportsLine college basketball expert Matt Severance is on.
Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. Over the past two college basketball seasons, he went 391-286 (plus $2,714). Severance also has been on a roll during the 2022-23 college basketball season, going 79-45-1 (plus $1,957) on his last 125 picks. Anyone following him is way up.
Now, Severance has broken down the Michigan State vs. Rutgers matchup and just locked in his picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Rutgers vs. Michigan State:
- Michigan St. vs. Rutgers spread: Scarlet Knights -4.5
- Michigan St. vs. Rutgers over-under: 128 points
- Michigan St. vs. Rutgers money line: Spartans +145, Scarlet Knights -175
- MSU: It is 9-5 ATS at neutral sites the past two seasons
- RUT: It is 3-7 ATS on neutral courts since the 2018-19 season
- Michigan St. vs. Rutgers picks: See picks here
Why Rutgers can cover
The Scarlet Knights are 17-5 against the spread this season, and they won the past two home meetings by 21 and 30 points. This one is not in Piscataway, but the Knights should still have overwhelming support. They have one of the best defenses in the nation and face a Spartans team that has a lot of shooting problems. The Spartans shoot 44.5% from the field (185th in nation), while Rutgers opponents shoot 37.7%, the fourth-best defensive mark in Division I.
Rutgers gives up 58.5 points per game (sixth in the nation), and the Spartans score 69 (249th). Center Clifford Omoruyi plays a big role on both ends for the Scarlet Knights, who are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games. The 6-foot-11 junior blocks two shots per game and averages 13.4 points and 9.9 rebounds. Cam Spencer averages 13.1 points and 2.4 steals and hits almost 44% of his three-point attempts. Rutgers has a plus-12.9 scoring margin, 15th in the nation.
Why Michigan State can cover
The Spartans are 6-4 ATS in their past 10 and should be well-rested. They also should have more confidence not playing in front of the rabid fans in New Jersey. With the exception of a four-point home loss in 2018 and setbacks the past two times they visited Piscataway, the Spartans have won every other meeting by double digits. The average margin in their 11 victories against Rutgers is 17.9 points. The Spartans hit 12 of 22 three-point tries in the last meeting.
Four players hit three apiece, putting all in double figures scoring – A.J. Hoggard (16 points), Joey Hauser (14), Tyson Walker (12) and Jaden Akins (11). Hoggard had seven assists, and Walker and Akins had four steals apiece. Walker is the go-to outside shooter, with 37 made threes on 41.1% shooting, while Akins has hit 44.3% of his 61 tries. Spartans opponents shoot 30.5% from outside, best in the Big Ten. Rutgers made two three-pointers in last month’s meeting.
How to make Michigan State vs. Rutgers picks
Severance has analyzed the Rutgers vs. Michigan State matchup from all angles, and he is leaning under on the point total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. You can find out what it is, and see the rest of Severance’s picks and analysis, at SportsLine.
So who wins Michigan State vs. Rutgers on Saturday? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Matt Severance’s Rutgers vs. Michigan State pick and analysis, all from the college basketball expert who’s up more than $1,900 on recent college basketball picks, and find out.