Dueling polls paint picture of a tight Democratic gubernatorial race

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Agriculture Secretary Nikki Fried held a four-point in a new University of North Florida (UNF) ballot launched late Monday. But the marketing campaign of Rep. Charlie Crist stated their very own polling reveals a fully completely different general race.

According to the UNF ballot, Fried leads Crist 47% to 43% amongst doubtless Democratic major voters with one other 6% both saying they do not know or refusing to reply. Fried’s lead is exterior the ballot’s 3.4% margin of error.

An earlier ballot from UNF discovered Fried trailing Crist by eight factors.

“Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked registered Democrats about vote choice in February,” stated Dr. Michael Binder, PORL school director and UNF professor of political science. “It’s possible that the overturning of Roe v. Wade changed the make-up of this race, and has particularly energized women that are almost 20 points more likely to vote for her.”

While that is good news for the Fried marketing campaign only one week earlier than the first, the Crist marketing campaign stated not so quick.

According to an inside ballot from Change Research, Crist holds a 10-point lead over Fried, 47%-37%, with 16% saying they’re undecided or refusing to reply. The Crist ballot additionally reported he leads amongst those that have already voted by a 52-35% margin.

The inside Crist marketing campaign ballot had a margin of error of 4.2%.

With dueling polling exhibiting two completely different leaders, RealClearPolitics reveals that of the polls it is tracked since February, Crist has had a comfy lead over Fried till the UNF ballot was launched.

Fried or Crist will face Governor Ron DeSantis within the November common election, the place Democratic turnout could possibly be higher than anticipated, in line with the UNF ballot. And that elevated turnout could possibly be pushed by abortion.

“Without the protections of Roe, the likelihood of a strict or outright ban on abortion being introduced in Florida increases dramatically, and this looks to be mobilizing Democrats to the polls—78% said the decision made them more likely to vote in November,” famous Binder. “But among Republicans, most (54%) said they are at least somewhat supportive of an outright ban.”