No. 22 Mississippi State (-3) vs. Illinois
This recreation might be performed underneath a somber shadow after the loss of life of Mississippi State Coach Mike Leach on Dec. 12. Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett was promoted to move coach after Leach’s loss of life and can lead the 8-4 Bulldogs right here. Illinois (8-4), which entered the highest 25 for the primary time in 11 years earlier than dropping three of 4 to finish the season, allowed a national-best 12.3 factors per recreation and was second in yards allowed per recreation at 263.8.
Key personnel losses: Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters left to take the top teaching job at Purdue, and Coach Bret Bielema promoted defensive backs coach Aaron Henry to interchange him. The Illini might be skinny within the secondary after defensive backs Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown opted out (each had been named first-team all-Big Ten, and Witherspoon was a consensus all-American and possibly might be a first-round NFL draft choose). Illinois additionally might be with out operating again Chase Brown, who opted out after main all Power Five convention operating backs with 1,643 speeding yards. Mississippi State huge receiver Rara Thomas (team-high 626 receiving yards) and operating again Dillon Johnson (team-high 5.5 yards per carry) have transferred.
Pick: Mississippi State -3. Losing two star defensive backs is hardly best when going in opposition to a crew equivalent to Mississippi State, which handed the ball 68.6 % of the time this season, by far the nation’s highest share. Throw within the lack of one of many nation’s most efficient operating backs, and it could be exhausting for the Illini to maintain up.
No. 17 LSU (-15.5) vs. Purdue
After Purdue (8-5) emerged from the middling Big Ten West and misplaced to Michigan within the Big Ten title recreation, Boilermakers coach Jeff Brohm left to take the highest job at Louisville, so offensive coordinator Brian Brohm (his brother) will lead the crew within the bowl recreation. Coach Brian Kelly exceeded expectations in his first season with LSU (9-4), beating Alabama and advancing to the SEC championship recreation earlier than falling to Georgia.
Key personnel losses: Several Boilermakers starters have adopted Brohm out the door: Quarterback Aidan O’Connell (second-team all-Big Ten), huge receiver Charlie Jones (national-best 110 receptions), tight finish Payne Durham (second-team all-Big Ten), guard Spencer Holstege and cornerback Cory Trice all have opted out or are transferring. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels performed on an ankle harm late within the season however most likely will play within the bowl recreation, however his receiving corps took successful from transfers, opt-outs and accidents (departing/injured huge receivers Jack Bech, Kyren Lacy, Jaray Jenkins and Chris Hilton Jr. mixed for 72 catches). Three of LSU’s 4 starters on the defensive position — edge rushers B.J. Ojulari and Ali Gaye and deal with Jaquelin Roy — have opted out together with beginning cornerbacks Jay Ward and Mekhi Garner.
Pick: Under 54.5. Purdue’s offense misplaced a ton of manufacturing and the Boilermakers may battle to attain, even in opposition to an LSU protection that might be lacking not less than 5 starters.
No. 10 USC (-2) vs. No. 16 Tulane
The Trojans (11-2) had been on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff till the Pac-12 title recreation, when Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams obtained damage and USC misplaced to Utah for the second time this season. USC beat everybody else on its schedule, nevertheless, regardless of having one of many nation’s worst defenses (it ranks 119th in defensive success charge). Tulane went from 2-10 in 2021 to 11-2 this season, incomes its first nationwide rating since 1998 and its first look in a serious bowl recreation for the reason that 1939 Sugar Bowl.
Key personnel losses: Tulane has no departures of be aware. Williams has mentioned he’ll play within the bowl recreation for USC if the hamstring harm he suffered within the Pac-12 title recreation has healed sufficiently. But first-team all-American guard Andrew Vorhees (opt-out), third-team all-American middle Brett Neilon (knee harm) and huge receiver Jordan Addison (opted out after a team-high 59 receptions) gained’t play. Leading rusher Travis Dye additionally will miss the sport due to the knee harm he suffered in November.
Pick: Over 64 (assuming Williams performs). No one has proven they will cease USC from scoring, and the expertise hole between the Trojans and the Green Wave needs to be huge. Likewise, USC hasn’t confirmed it may well cease anybody, and Tulane Coach Willie Fritz will make the most of that.
No. 8 Utah (-1.5) vs. No. 11 Penn State
In the Rose Bowl for a second straight season, Utah (10-3) enters with three losses by a mixed 16 factors. The Utes’ depth on offense is clear of their statistics: Five gamers rushed for not less than 360 yards, and 6 had not less than 280 receiving yards. Plus, quarterback Cameron Rising has emerged as one of many nation’s steadiest quarterbacks. Penn State’s two losses got here to CFP individuals Ohio State and Michigan, and the Nittany Lions (10-2) led the Buckeyes within the fourth quarter earlier than faltering. Penn State true freshman operating backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have mixed for 1,771 speeding yards and 19 touchdowns this season, however the Nittany Lions’ operating recreation as an entire ranked one hundred and tenth in success charge and was virtually solely reliant on explosive performs. If they’re not there, the offense stalls. Utah’s protection ranks 92nd in speeding explosiveness allowed, although.
Key personnel losses: Penn State huge receiver Parker Washington (46 catches) and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (second-team all-American) have opted out. Left deal with Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who surprisingly introduced he’s returning subsequent season, missed the final 4 video games with an harm and his standing for the bowl recreation is unclear. Utah tight finish Dalton Kincaid (the Utes’ main receiver), main rusher Tavion Thomas and beginning cornerback Clark Phillips III (a unanimous all-American) have opted out.
Pick: Over 52.5. Both groups’ go defenses took successful with opt-outs from secondary gamers who each might be excessive NFL draft picks. Penn State scored not less than 30 factors in its last six video games, and Utah scored not less than 42 factors in 4 of its final 5.
