Before the 2022-23 season, many thought it was a foregone conclusion that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been going to complete close to the backside of the league. In the preseason, BetMGM, a well-liked on-line sportsbook, had set an over-under of 23.5 wins for the franchise. The Thunder have earned 14 wins via 32 video games and have to win 10 of their subsequent 50 video games to beat these odds.
But not solely can the Thunder defy expectations this season, however they might additionally actually blow them out of the water. Oklahoma City is at the moment on tempo to win 35 video games this season, or an 11.5-game distinction over BetMGM’s projected win whole. While successful 35 video games isn’t thrilling on the floor, it might earn the Thunder a spot in the NBA’s novel Play-In Tournament.
Since the NBA completely put in the present iteration of the Play-In, to not be confused with the pilot model launched in 2019-20, groups with the Seventh-to-Tenth finest file, of their respective conferences, should compete to find out who will probably be awarded the seventh and eighth seed in the NBA Playoffs. But the format is completely different from the NBA Playoffs.
Here is the way it works. The ninth-place group and tenth-place sq. off in a single-game elimination spherical. And then the seventh-place group hosts the eighth-place group in a “double-chance” sport the place the eighth-place group should earn back-to-back victories to safe the seventh seed in the Playoffs. Subsequently, the loser of that sport performs the winner of the ninth-versus-tenth sport in one other single-elimination bout to find out the eighth seed.
In 2020-21, the first 12 months of the everlasting Play-In, each the Charlotte Hornets and San Antonio Spurs emerged from every convention with the tenth-best file. Each group gained 33 video games however misplaced their matches in opposition to the groups with the ninth-best file. In 2021-22, each the Hornets and the Spurs emerged as the tenth-place groups once more, incomes a consecutive journey to the Play-In. In that 12 months, the Hornets gained 43 video games and the Spurs gained 34.
If you do the math, the median quantity of wins recorded by tenth-place groups getting into the Play-In is simply 33.5 video games. That’s all it took, on common, for groups to earn a possibility to compete for an eighth seed in the NBA Playoffs.
And as talked about earlier than, the Thunder are on monitor to win 35 video games. Will they sustain the tempo is one other query, however there isn’t any query that the franchise is inside hanging distance of creating the Play-In match. But there are obstacles.
Currently, the Thunder maintain the Twelfth-best file in the Western Conference with 14 wins. They simply want to leap two groups earlier than the finish of the season to earn a Play-In berth. But sitting above them are a number of seasoned groups, although.
Sitting eleventh in the standings are the Golden State Warriors and their completed trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. And in response to BetMGM, they maintain the third-best odds to win the Western Conference. It’s extremely unlikely that this will probably be one in every of the groups overcome by the Thunder.
Just above the Warriors are the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Donic, in addition to the Minnesota Timberwolves, led by a resurgence from D’Angelo Russell and the up-and-coming Anthony Edwards. Both groups are tied with 16 wins, simply two extra wins than the Thunder. But it’s exhausting to ascertain the proficient Timberwolves, who’ve bested Oklahoma City in three of 4 matches this 12 months, and the Doncic-led Mavericks 0f successful fewer video games than the Thunder.
Perhaps two of these groups may come from the group that at the moment holds the sixth, seventh, and eighth-best information. That’s the Utah Jazz, Portland Trailblazers, and Sacramento Kings. While the tales of loyalty, beams, and underdogs are enjoyable, the season is lengthy and something can occur.
Still, for the Thunder to have an opportunity at making it to the Play-In, they must discover a method to make up some floor in the win-loss column. They are at the moment two video games behind the ninth-place Mavericks and three video games behind the eighth-place Jazz. And if early season play is any indication of how groups will carry out shifting ahead, the Thunder have their work lower out for them.
Right now, it appears the Thunder may have to win about 36 or 37 video games to earn the Tenth-best file in the Western Conference. That quantities to them successful 44% or 46%, or 22 or 23, of their subsequent 50 video games – a tall activity for the youngest group in the NBA.
But there may be hope. According to Tankathon, the Thunder have the Twenty second-easiest remaining schedule in the league. And strikes will be made. Should the Thunder resolve to make a push for the Play-In, General Manager Sam Presti has an exorbitant quantity of property he can use to make the vital trades to place the group in a extra aggressive place.
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